This research brief presents evidence that shifting attention from single shocks and population averages toward cumulative, multi-shock exposure can substantially improve anticipatory action, targeting, and the effectiveness of scarce humanitarian and development resources.

This study uses FAO Data in Emergencies (DIEM) survey data from 5,396 households to examine compound vulnerability and food security in Somalia. These households have experienced a variety of simultaneous shocks, including economic, agricultural, natural, conflict-related, and idiosyncratic occurrences. This study precisely measured these shocks using both parametric and non-parametric Multi-Shock Indices. Cumulative shock exposure was low to moderate on average (13.3–14.6 percent of the maximum achievable), but there was a sizable minority at high levels of exposure: 1,142 households surpassed mean-plus-one standard deviation under the parametric MSI, while 1,350 households exceeded the 75th percentile using the non-parametric MSI. High-risk households were concentrated within vulnerable socio-demographic categories (e.g., female-headed households, less educated household heads, and displaced households) and within certain regions (e.g., Woqooyi Galbeed, Lower Shabelle, and Mudug). Inadequate food security outcomes, such as lower Food Consumption Scores, inadequate dietary diversity, and the use of crisis or emergency coping mechanisms, were closely linked to high MSI values. The parametric MSI also indicated a non-linear amplification for greater levels of cumulative exposure; specific combinations of shocks, such as increasing food prices with animal disease or lost work, had particularly powerful, detrimental impacts. In order to help vulnerable households before shocks occur, these findings emphasize the significance of shock-sensitive and tailored interventions that connect numerous shock indicators to traditional food insecurity measures.

The report describes that food insecurity is on the rise worldwide. In the report, Rob Vos, division director of markets, trade and institutions at the International Food Policy Research Institute, states, “People thought there would be shortages and new food price spikes and volatility [during the pandemic], but it didn’t happen because there were plenty of stocks of the basic staple crops."