Early Warning Systems Hub Reports

The latest Chronic Food Insecurity analysis revealed that the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains critical, with about 40 percent of the population facing IPC Level 3 or above chronic food insecurity. This includes 15.7 million people facing Severe (IPC Level 4) and 25.1 million people facing Moderate (IPC Level 3). Despite the country's abundant natural resources and government efforts, chronic food insecurity persists due to several factors such as protacted armed conflict, large-scale displacement, governance challenges, and recurrent natural disasters.

Chronic food insecurity is primarily driven by armed conflicts – particularly in the eastern regions – which has resulted in large-scale displacement and loss of livelihoods. Governance challenges, including inequitable resource distribution, weak law enforcement, and limited socio-economic investment, further exacerbate the issue. Health crises, such as epidemics and animal diseases, alongside crop attacks, further disrupt food systems and agricultural production, aggravating the food crisis by compromising the food security of populations.

Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure and recurrent natural disasters such as floods and landslides hinder access to essential services such as healthcare, clean water, and electricity. Low agricultural productivity, characterized by a cereal deficit and limited access to quality inputs, remains a significant challenge.

Finally, the depreciation of the Congolese Franc against the US dollar has led to escalating prices and reduced purchasing power, exacerbating the effects of widespread poverty.

The results of this analysis indicate that the insecurity situation acute food intake remains more or less stable but worrying, with 41%
of the analyzed population classified in a Crisis and Emergency situation. Approximately 2.5 million people in Crisis and Emergency situations (Phase 3 and 4 of the IPC) are in need of immediate food assistance. Among the 2.5 million people experiencing high acute food insecurity,

Approximately 508 thousand people are in an emergency situation (Phase 4 of the IPC) and around 2 million people are in Crisis (Phase 3) of the IPC).

Between April and June 2024, an estimated 221,000 people or 19 percent of the analysed population (out of 1.18 million people), are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 38,000 people (3 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 183,000 in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

For the projected period (July to December 2024), generally characterized by very high temperatures and movements of pastoralist households, an estimated 285,000 people, representing 24 percent of the population analysed, are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity. Approximately 53,000 people will be in Phase 4 and 232,000 in Phase 3.

According to the latest projection update, around 1.26 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and September 2024. This includes 85,000 people (2 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.18 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The analysed population includes Lebanese, Syrian refugees, Palestine Refugees in Lebanon (PRL) and Palestine Refugees from Syria (PRS). Among the 1.26 million people expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and September 2024, 683,000 are Lebanese residents (18 percent of the resident population), 510,000 are Syrian refugees (34 percent of the Syrians refugees in Lebanon), 55,000 are PRL (31 percent of the PRL population in Lebanon), and 13,600 are PRS (45 percent of the PRS population in Lebanon). Populations classified in IPC Phase 3 or above require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

Afghanistan continues to experience marginal improvements in food security since the large degradation in the situation following the political transition of 2021. Despite improvements from previous analyses, nearly a third of Afghanistan’s population (14.2 million people or 32 percent of the total population)1 are still experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between March and April 2024 and are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. Of this, 2.9 million people (7 percent) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency)
and 11.3 million people (25 percent) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
The slight improvement in the food security situation can be
attributed to humanitarian and livelihood support initiatives, as
well as improved household purchasing power, among other
factors.

Approximately 8.6 million people (24 percent of the analysed population) in parts of Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity between March to June 2024 with 1.6 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 7 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Of the 47 rural districts analysed, 20 have between 30 and 45 percent of their populations in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

The analysed districts have been severely affected by a series of climatic shocks, including the aftermath of devastating 2022 flooding and 2023 monsoon rains. In addition to climatic shocks - high food, fuel, and agricultural input prices, exacerbated by poor political and economic conditions, as well as livestock diseases and mild drought conditions in several parts of Sindh and Balochistan are also driving acute food insecurity. Urgent action is required to protect their livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps.

The IPC acute food insecurity analysis in Pakistan covered 47 flood affected/vulnerable rural districts. These districts spread across Balochistan (21), Sindh (15), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (11) and account for approximately 35.6 million people or 15 percent of Pakistan’s total population.