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Because of low incomes and associated large shares of expenditure on food, Mali is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key grain staples such as maize and wheat. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine develop ments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of relatively stable prices on world mar kets, the prices of key food staples began to rise during 2020. This period of price increases, span ning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Mali.

After a long period of relatively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the Covid-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Ethiopia.

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.