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Acute malnutrition remains a major concern in Kenya, especially across the arid and semi-arid regions. Acute malnutrition (AMN) remained stable in the 27 analysed areas in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) between April and July 2025. However, elevated levels have been detected in 15 areas, with 11 areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), four areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), seven areas classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) and five areas in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable). In the projection period (August to October 2025), acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate in eight areas, improve in three areas and remain stable in 15 areas. The number of children aged 6 to 59 months requiring treatment between April 2025 and March 2026 is estimated to be 741,883, which is a slight improvement (2.5 percent reduction) compared to 2024. Food gaps, high disease burden, limited access to health services, limited water and access to sanitation services, and reduced humanitarian funding continue to drive acute malnutrition.

Nearly 1.8 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), between July and September 2025 (lean season). Of this total, around 179,000 people are experiencing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) conditions, while the remaining population is classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The worst-affected areas are four arid counties—Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana.
The current situation has improved compared to the period between February and March 2025 when 2.2 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity. The improvement is attributed to above-average rainfall, which positively impacted crop and livestock production, and water availability and access, leading to slightly improved household food security in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
During the projection period (October 2025 to January 2026), the food security situation is expected to deteriorate, particularly during the short rains season (October–December 2025). An estimated 2.1 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The deterioration is mainly driven by forecasted below-average rainfall, which is expected to further affect staple food prices, alongside conflicts over resource management. Compared to the same period last year, the population projected in Phase 3 or above has increased from 11 to 13 percent with around 2 million people expected to be in Phase 3, and approximately 160,000 people in Phase 4.

Approximately 428,000 children aged 6–59 months and 84,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women are suffering or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition across 43 districts in Uganda between March 2025 to February 2026 and require urgent nutrition support or treatment. The highest is reported in Karamoja with three districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and four districts classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).
Key factors fuelling acute malnutrition include high climate vulnerability—driven by arid to semi-arid conditions and prolonged dry spells that restrict access to reliable and sufficient water—intersects with poor agro-ecological potential, including marginal pastoral and agricultural zones characterized by rocky, infertile soils. Livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist, supplemented by limited single-season crop farming, but remain constrained by low dietary diversity and recurring seasonal food insecurity.

An estimated 1.42 million people in Uganda are expected to face high levels of food insecurity between August 2025 and February 2026. This is an improvement compared to the current analysis period (April to July 2025) when approximately 2.46 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above.
The improvement is largely due to the expected strong harvest season. However, food insecurity remains persistent in Karenga, Napak, Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido, where between 30 and 45 percent of the population are still classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. It remains essential to implement activities aimed at reducing the food consumption deficits of food insecure populations as well as strengthening their resilience capacities.

In August, wheat and rice export prices dropped to their lowest levels in years, largely due to abundant global supplies and weak demand. Meanwhile, maize and soybean prices found support from higher export premiums and robust international buying interest. Vegetable oil prices remained strong, because of increased palm oil quotes driven by steady global import needs. Nitrogen fertilizer prices climbed, especially with strong demand from India during what is usually a quiet season, while prices for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers stayed mostly steady. However, fertilizer is becoming less affordable compared to crop prices in many regions, which could lead farmers to adjust their application rates. Although the outlook for AMIS commodities remains generally positive, ongoing uncertainties in trade and biofuel policies continue to pose risks for market participants.

Global wheat prices edged up slightly in June, despite seasonal harvest pressure. Maize prices declined, driven by favourable crop conditions in the United States and strong export competition from South America. Rice prices fell amid subdued global demand. Soybean prices rose, supported by firm demand. Meanwhile, the EU reinstated import quotas on Ukrainian grain, and India continued its wheat export ban. Fertilizer markets also experienced volatility, largely due to instability in the Near East. Current forecasts suggest a comfortable global supply outlook for AMIS crops. However, heatwaves affecting parts of Europe, India, and the United States could constrain the yield potential, particularly of maize. While weather-related uncertainty remains a constant feature of agricultural markets, its impacts are now compounded by trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions.