Commodity

The FAO Food Price Index continued to rise in March for the tenth consecutive month. The Index increased 2.1 percent from February, bringing it to its highest value seen since June 2014. The rise was led by increased prices for vegetable oils, meat, and dairy. Cereal prices declined in March.

Futures prices for most staple food commodities have fallen since February because of market supply chain disruptions associated with the spread of the COVID-19 virus and lower oil prices, among other factors. However, overall, price variability in the major agricultural commodity markets has remained relatively calm in the face of COVID-19-related shutdowns. Until recently, the exceptions to this relative calm have included hard wheat and coffee. Hard wheat saw moderate and high levels of price variability from April 9 to June 15. This appeared to be related to tightening of wheat markets with lower stock-to-utility ratios, measures taken by two major wheat-producing countries (Kazakhstan and Russia) to limit exports, and reports of prospects of less favorable growing conditions in parts of Ukraine and other parts of Europe. Price variability in coffee was driven by low stock levels and supply disruptions, but these conditions calmed in the second half of May.

The FAO Food Price Index remained virtually unchanged in August, although cereal prices rose as a result of declining crop prospects. At 167.6 points, the Index is around 9 percent lower than its August 2017 levels.

The FAO Food Price Index remained nearly unchanged in April; however, cereal and dairy prices continued to rise.

The Cereal Price Index rose 1.7 percent from March, reaching almost 16 percent higher than its April 2017 levels. This is the fourth consecutive month of such increases, which are being driven largely by weather-related fears for wheat and maize and government purchases in Indonesia and the Philippines for rice.

Despite a 3.3 percent decline in December, the FAO Food Price Index saw an overall increase for 2017 as a whole. The Index rose 8.2 percent from 2016 to reach the highest annual average seen since 2014. The increase was driven mainly by sharp increases in dairy and meat prices, but international cereal prices also experienced a modest increase in 2017.