Soft Wheat

High food prices and supply disruptions triggered by the Ukraine war are hitting Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries like Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen hard, partly due their heavy dependence on wheat imports. But in the region, Lebanon—already in the midst of one of the world’s worst economic collapses since the 1850s—is uniquely vulnerable to food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Ten years after the launch of AMIS and the Food Security Portal’s Excessive Price Variability Early Warning System, managing and reducing food price volatility remains a clear priority for global food security.

As reported earlier this month, global wheat prices declined slightly in June after 12 straight months of increases. The recent decline was based on favorable production prospects in several major producing regions, including Europe, India, and the Black Sea region. Wheat futures prices followed suit, dropping by 6 percent in June.

The FAO Food Price Index remained virtually unchanged in August, although cereal prices rose as a result of declining crop prospects. At 167.6 points, the Index is around 9 percent lower than its August 2017 levels.

The latest editions of the FAO Food Price Index and AMIS Market Monitor are both now available for September. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of five food commodity groups; the monthly AMIS Market Monitor covers the international markets for wheat, rice, maize, and soy and provides an overview of the market situation and outlook for each of these crops.

The FAO’s latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report for 2016 forecasts world cereal production at 2,578 million tonnes, 1.7 percent above 2015 cereal output. This gain is being driven mainly on larger maize and wheat crops. The Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report is published four times a year and provides a review of the food situation by geographic region; it also includes a section dedicated to Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC) and a list of countries requiring external food assistance.