Food Prices

The 2007-08 food crisis saw the international price of staple agricultural commodities (such as wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice) more than double; today the international price of many of these commodities is again on the rise. A common assumption is that as the international price of such commodities increases, the domestic consumer price of basic food items such as bread, flour, wheat, corn, tortillas, and rice will also increase. However, the degree of this transmission may vary from country to country and from commodity to commodity.

The World Bank this week issued a statement saying that increasing food prices have driven an estimated 44 million people into poverty in low- and middle-income countries since June 2010. This staggering increase in global poverty levels has serious economic, social, and political implications. Many experts and media outlets worldwide have linked rising food prices to riots in Algeria, the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, and the recent riots in Egypt which led to the historic resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.

The World Bank has released its Food Price Watch for February, citing estimates that suggest an additional 44 million people may have fallen into poverty in low- and middle-income
countries due to the rise in food prices since June 2010. The overall global rise in food prices has been driven by increases in the prices of wheat, maize, sugar, and fats and oils. (Track the rise in global commodities prices and futures prices with agricultural commodities tools )

Climate change poses both challenges and opportunities for sustainable agricultural growth, particularly in the developing world. As was witnessed during the 2010 droughts in Russia and floods in Pakistan, major climatic events can have significant negative impacts on agricultural markets, forcing global food prices higher and threatening the world’s food security.

As climate change continues to present new constraints to traditional agriculture, appropriate responses will require complementary policies at the farm-, country-, and global levels.

How is a country affected by changes in the world price of the commodities that it exports and imports? What is the effect on prices when a country’s food supply is increased by the release of stocks? What is driving changes in world commodity prices, and how do trends for one commodity compare with trends for another?