Hard Wheat

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) has released the latest edition of its monthly Market Monitor. This month's report sees stabilized world markets as forecasts for 2012-2013 crop outlooks become more finalized. Despite this stabilization, however, attention should be paid to ongoing weather concerns, particularly drought affecting US winter wheat.

Wheat production in 2012 fell below the record seen in 2011, and ending stocks are expected to decline significantly. Wheat use, on the other hand, is expected to drop based on lower feed use in China and the EU.

The latest FAO Food Outlook finds that, on average, global food prices have been 8 percent lower during 2012 than they were in 2011. Global food import bills are forecast at USD 1.14 trillion, which is 10 percent lower than the record import bills seen in 2011.

The latest edition of the GIEWS Global Food Price Monitor reports that international cereals export prices remained stable in October. While wheat prices experienced some upward pressure due to trends in Australia and Ukraine, this was offset by favorable planting conditions for US winter wheat. Similarly, rice prices remained stable, falling only 1 percent from September. Maize prices also fell marginally based on slowing trade activity and progress of the US harvest.

In its latest Monthly Food Price Watch, FEWS NET reports that global rice production for 2012/2013 is expected to be the highest on record. Global soybean production prospects also improved with a 10 percent increase for 2012/2013; however, strong global demand is expected to keep soybean and soybean oil prices high. While global wheat prices remain high, production is only expected to decline by six percent. However, trade policies in key wheat exporting countries could exert further pressure on prices.

The latest FEWS NET Monthly Price Watch was released on Friday. The report states that international grain prices stabilized at higher levels in August and began to decline in September as more information about the extent of U.S. crop damage due the drought became available.