Hard Wheat

Just as the sun rises and sets, food price volatility—the variation in food prices over time—is a given these days. Once unexpected price instabilities have now become routine in the era following the food crisis of 2007-2008. For poor households, which spend more than 60 percent of their income on food, price shocks are, indeed, shocks to a struggling family’s bottom line. For example, farmers find it difficult to know what type of crop and how much of it to plant, leading to shortages and lost incomes.

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report was released on Friday. The WASDE report provides monthly comprehensive forecasts of supply and demand for major U.S. and global crops, supplied by the USDA. Crops covered include wheat, coarse grains, rice, and oilseeds. This report can explain past and current global commodities trends, as well as predict trends for the coming year. This month's report cites higher global wheat supplies for 2013/2014, as well as record global corn production.

For the second month in a row, the FAO Food Price Index rose on sharp increases in dairy prices and marginal increases in meat. The Index averaged 215.5 points in April, up 2 points from March. At this level, the Index is only 9 points below its highest level, seen in February 2011.

The USDA released last week its April edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The WASDE report provides monthly comprehensive forecasts of supply and demand for major U.S. and global crops, supplied by the USDA. Crops covered include wheat, coarse grains, rice, and oilseeds. This report can explain past and current global commodities trends, as well as predict trends for the coming year. This month's report sees higher global wheat stocks for 2012/13, but tight stock-to-use ratios for both corn and soybeans.

The FAO Food Price Index rose slightly in March based on higher dairy prices. The Index rose by 1 percent from February, but is still 1.7 percent lower than March of 2012 and nearly 11 percent below its peak in February 2011.