Soybean

The USDA released last week its April edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The WASDE report provides monthly comprehensive forecasts of supply and demand for major U.S. and global crops, supplied by the USDA. Crops covered include wheat, coarse grains, rice, and oilseeds. This report can explain past and current global commodities trends, as well as predict trends for the coming year. This month's report sees higher global wheat stocks for 2012/13, but tight stock-to-use ratios for both corn and soybeans.

It's become clearer and clearer in recent years that spikes in food prices can have significant impact on incomes, markets, and nutrition worldwide. Extreme fluctuations in the price of food can pose challenges for both consumers and producers, and also often lead to political and market overreaction such as export restrictions. While such policies are designed to protect domestic populations, they can further exacerbate price spikes on the international market and have devastating consequences for global food security.

The latest FAO Food Price Index , released last week, was unchanged from January levels, remaining steady at 210 points. This is five points lower than the levels seen in February 2012. The Cereals Price Index and Oils/Fats Price Index remained generally steady as well, experiencing a 1 percent drop and 0.4 percent rise, respectively. The slight decline seen for cereals is due mainly to improved wheat and maize prospects in the US.

The newest edition of the FEWS Net Monthly Price Watch was released last week, citing continuing high international maize and wheat prices. While maize prices saw drastic spikes in June and July 2012 due to drought conditions in the US, they leveled off, although at high levels, later in the year as more information regarding US crop conditions and global supplies became available. Wheat prices, on the other hand, rose steadily between May and November before leveling out in December.

US wheat supplies are expected to increase by the end of 2013, in part because of weakened export demand, according to the latest Wheat Outlook from the USDA Economic Research Service. Global wheat production is also forecast to increase by 3.7 tons due to increases in China, Australia, and Canada. World ending stocks are predicted to be 2.8 million tons higher than previously estimated.