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Over the past decade, the world’s food systems have faced multiple significant shocks, from the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to numerous climate change-driven natural disasters and instances of civil unrest and political instability. These challenges have disrupted markets, driven up food and fertilizer prices and price volatility, reduced food availability and accessibility, and pushed millions of people into hunger.

In February 2022, news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated headlines around the world. Policymakers everywhere worried about the potential ripple effects of the invasion on the economic recovery from COVID-19, as well as on political stability — and food and nutrition security. These worries proved to be well-founded: International food prices spiked by nearly a third and fertilizer prices tripled. 

Policies to boost biofuel production and use—crop subsidies, mandates, and other measures—came under intense scrutiny during the food price spikes of 2007/08, 2010/11, and 2012/13. As prices of maize, grains, oilseeds, and other feedstocks rose in those crises—more than doubling in some cases—critics pointed to their increasing use in biofuel production as a major factor behind high global food prices.

The FAO Food Price Index continued to decline in March, dropping by 2.1 percent from the previous month. The Index has fallen by almost 21 percent since March 2022.

The Russia-Ukraine war has focused global attention on the key economic roles that those countries play as major exporters of agricultural commodities. Over 2019-2021, they accounted for 12% of global agricultural trade on a kilocalorie basis, with a combined market share of 34% for wheat, 26% for barley, 17% for maize, and 75% for sunflower oil. The war has scrambled this picture, with Ukraine’s exports falling dramatically, and Russia’s falling, then recovering.