Rainfall

FEWS NET has released an updated forecast analysis for the Horn of Africa, citing the likelihood of poor rainfall in the coming months. In the most likely scenario, rainfall in March-May will be ten percent below average. While a ten percent reduction in rainfall would not have substantial negative impacts on crop production, humanitarian agencies are urged to prepare contingency plans to address possible disruptions to food access.

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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network has released a food security alert for East Africa, citing ongoing drought, uncertain rainfall predictions, and increasing international food prices. Rainfall totals were less than 30 percent of average in certain regions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya from October-December 2010. This severe water shortage led to a failure of January-February harvests in the region. FEWS NET predicts that as many as five million people in the area will have difficulty meeting basic food and water requirements in the coming months.

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