Between June and September 2025, 193,000 people (16 percent of the population) in Eswatini are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity and loss of livelihood, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Although food security has improved significantly compared to the same period last year, the situation is expected to deteriorate during the projection period (October 2025 to March 2026). An estimated 259,000 people (21 percent of the population) are likely to face Crisis or worse conditions, representing an increase of 66,000 people compared to the current period. The Lowveld Cattle and Maize (LCM) zone continues to experience the worst food security conditions, with over 72,000 people in Phase 3 or above, followed by the Dry Middleveld (DMV) and the Lubombo Plateau (LP) with nearly 30,000 people and more than 9,400 people in Phase 3 or above respectively. These numbers demonstrate persistently high food insecurity levels.

Approximately 2.2 million people—or one in three people—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity between April and August 2025, including 481,000 people facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and 1.74 million people experiencing crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The situation is driven by conflict and insecurity, poor agricultural production and economic shocks. Armed violence and civil unrest continue to displace populations—over 443,000 people are currently displaced—and limit access to farmland, especially in the southeast, northeast, and northwest.

Approximately 194,000 people (17 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between May and June 2025. Of this total, 44,000 people are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity, characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. In the projected period (July to December 2025), the situation is expected to deteriorate with 230,000 people projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 55,000 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed for prevent a further deterioration.

The Government-controlled areas in Yemen continue to face a rapidly worsening situation compared to the same period last year. Approximately 4.95 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between May and August 2025, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Alarmingly, over 1.5 million people (15 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing critical levels of food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). All 118 analysed districts are now classified in Crisis or worse, including 41 districts currently classified in Phase 4. This reflects an increase of 29 districts in Phase 4 from the last projection analysis ending in February 2025.

The impact of conflict and civil insecurity is deepening food insecurity in South Sudan, with over half of the population (about 7.7 million people or 57 percent of the analysed population) experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between April and July 2025. Among them, 83,000 people are experiencing catastrophic levels of food insecurity, classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), particularly in Pibor County (Greater Pibor Administrative Area), and the counties of Luakpiny/Nasir, Ulang, and Malakal in Upper Nile State. Among them are 39,000 returnees who fled the conflict in Sudan and are currently classified in IPC AFI Phase 5.
In Luakpiny/Nasir and Ulang, which face a risk of Famine under a worst-case scenario, urgent and immediate action is needed for these populations, including large-scale and multi-sectoral response and the protection of humanitarian access to prevent the total collapse of livelihoods, increased starvation, death and possible deterioration into a full-blown Famine.
In addition, around 2.4 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) and nearly 5.2 million people (38 percent of the analysed population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis). These populations require urgent humanitarian response to meet food needs, protect lives and livelihoods, and reduce further deterioration.

Approximately 15.5 million people in Bangladesh (16 percent of the analysed population) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity in April 2025 and were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). In the projection period (May-December 2025), the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) is expected to slightly increase to 16 million, representing 17 percent of the total analysed population. This includes 400,000 people classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The food security situation is expected to worsen notably for Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) in Cox’s Bazar and Bhashanchar, with 20 percent classified in Phase 4 and 20 percent in Phase 3 respectively. Sunamganj and Host community and Non-Host Local Community in Cox’s Bazar are also expected to face high food insecurity, with 30 percent and 35 percent of their respective populations classified in Phase 3 or above with 5 percent population classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for Sunamganj.

In the current period (March to April 2025), an estimated 12.6 million people (27 percent of the total population of 46 million people) faced high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 and above (Crisis or worse) and are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. Of these, about 1.95 million people (4 percent of the total population) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 10.64 million people (23 percent of the total population) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The situation is mainly driven by a fragile economy, a significant cut in humanitarian assistance compared to 2024, and environmental disasters, notably flooding and drought. An improvement is expected during the projection period (May to October 2025), with an estimated 9.52 million people (21 percent of the population) classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).