Acute food insecurity has reached critical levels across Kenya’s 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) and surrounding areas. An estimated 3.3 million people are currently classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above, including 400,000 people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) who require immediate, life-saving assistance. This marks a 52 percent increase from early 2025 (2.15 million people) and exceeds the October 2025–January 2026 projection, which had estimated 2.12 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above.
Additionally, refugee settlements in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei face similarly dire conditions. Approximately 429,000 people—around two-thirds of the population—are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, and all three settlements are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). This is driven by sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.

More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

From February–March 2026, a staggering 6.5 million people in Somalia are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—nearly double the population classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in August 2025. This includes more than 2 million people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). All affected populations urgently need assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce food deficits, and save lives.
This alarming deterioration is driven by worsening drought, rising food prices, and insecurity across central, southern, and parts of northern Somalia. The situation is compounded by declining humanitarian assistance, with a 27 percent reduction in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

Southern and eastern Madagascar continue to face persistently high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), driven by a combination of factors, including significant climatic shocks and the impacts of the recent socio-political crisis, compounded by a reduction in humanitarian assistance.
In the current period (December 2025–January 2026), more than 1.57 million people are estimated to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, including approximately 84,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.49 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents a deterioration compared to the situation originally projected in the July 2025 analysis. Populations in the greater south and greater southeast, as well as in the Atsimo Andrefana and Anosy regions, are particularly affected by these conditions.
For the projection period (February–April 2026), the overall trend points towards a further deterioration of the food security situation, with an estimated 1.8 million people likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes nearly 71,000 people expected to be in IPC Phase 4 and 1.73 million people projected to be in IPC Phase 3. This deterioration is in line with projections for the greater southeast area, where all analysed districts are expected to remain in Phase 3, driven by the combined effects of cyclone and flood risks, access constraints, and sustained health pressures. The most affected districts are projected to include Amboasary Atsimo (Anosy), Ampanihy (Atsimo Andrefana), and Mahanoro, Vatomandry and Maroantsetra.

Between October 2025 and March 2026 in 47 predominantly productive districts of Mozambique, an estimated 1.2 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian assistance to reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods. Of these, approximately 126,000 people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while approximaltey 1.1 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
This situation is driven by irregular rainfall and prolonged dry spells, the cumulative impacts of successive cyclones, persistent insecurity and displacement in the north of the country, and elevated food prices, which continue to constrain food access for the poorest households.
Food security conditions are expected to improve during the projected period (April–September 2026), with the number of people requiring urgent intervention expected to decline to approximately 529,000. This improvement is attributed to average to above-average rainfall forecasts, which are expected to enhance household food availability and contribute to lower food prices in local markets.

The acute food insecurity situation in Lebanon has further eased compared to the first half of 2025, but there are still a significant number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Between November 2025 and March 2026, around 874,000 Lebanese residents, Syrian refugees, Palestine refugees and post-December 2024 arrivals from Syria continue experiencing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This includes 22,000 people experiencing large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition, classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 851,000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
The reduction in the proportion of the population classified in IPC Phase 3 or above compared to the previous analysis conducted in March 2025, reflects a combination of factors, including the November 2024 ceasefire that enabled large-scale returns and restored market access and recovery; exchange rate stability and moderated inflation; seasonal income opportunities and remittances; and continued humanitarian assistance—despite funding cuts. However, food insecurity remains uneven and concentrated in high-severity pockets, particularly in the districts of Baalbek, El Hermel, Akkar, Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, El Nabatieh, and Sour, and among refugee populations.
The situation will deteriorate in the projection period (April to July 2026), with 961,000 people projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), equivalent to 18 percent of the total analysed population. Vulnerability in Lebanon among all population groups is driven by the lingering economic crisis, slow reconstruction and funding shortfalls for humanitarian assistance.

Following a significant reduction in conflict, a proposed peace plan, and improved access for both humanitarian and commercial food deliveries, food security conditions have improved in the Gaza Strip. However, the situation remains critical.
Between 16 October and 30 November 2025, around 1.6 million people (77 percent of the population analysed) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes more than half a million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 100,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
During the projection period (1 December 2025 to 15 April 2026), the situation is expected to remain severe with around 1.6 million people still facing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) food insecurity. This includes 571,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, and about 1,900 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), reflecting a reduction in the most extreme conditions.

Prolonged economic deterioration, recurrent drought, and a significant reduction in humanitarian assistance have left large segments of the population unable to meet their minimum food needs. Despite the scale of these pressures, many households have so far avoided more severe outcomes by maintaining some level of food production, retaining livestock, and limiting the use of irreversible coping strategies, supported by largescale lifesaving emergency agriculture and food assistance delivered in recent years. As humanitarian food security assistance declines, these buffers are eroding and vulnerabilities are re-emerging, underscoring the fragility and reversibility of recent food security improvements in Afghanistan.
In the current period (September–October 2025), roughly 13.8 million people (28 percent of the population) were classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including 2.9 million in Emergency (IPC AFI Phase 4) and 10.9 million in Crisis (IPC AFI Phase 3).
Food assistance in Afghanistan is limited, reaching only 2.7 percent of the population. This is compounded by a weak, contracting economy marked by high unemployment and declining remittance inflows, largely due to over 2.5 million returnees from Iran and Pakistan in 2025, placing added pressure on overstretched local resources, services, and livelihoods. These economic challenges are further worsened by severe drought and recent earthquakes.
The situation is expected to deteriorate further during the first projection period (November 2025–March 2026), coinciding with the winter lean season. An estimated 17.4 million people (36 percent of the population) are projected to face IPC AFI Phase 3 or above, including 4.7 million in IPC AFI Phase 4.
Some seasonal improvement is expected during the second projection period (April–September 2026), coinciding with the harvest season. The number of people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above is projected to decline to around 13.8 million (28 percent), including 2.9 million in IPC AFI Phase 4.