International food commodity prices have experienced a series of shocks over the past decade. The prices of rice, maize, and wheat spiked in 2007-08 as a result of supply shocks, demand for biofuels, and export trade restrictions. Commodity prices increased again in 2010-11. And most recently, global supply chain disruptions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent international food and fertilizer prices soaring, though they have moderated somewhat after peaking in mid-2022.

The FAO Food Price Index remained stable in November, with increased vegetable oil, dairy, and sugar prices balanced by falling cereal and meat prices. The November 2023 Index was 10.7 percent below its 2022 level.

The Cereal Price Index decreased by 3 percent in November to reach nearly 20 percent below its November 2022 level. Maize prices fell most significantly in November due to increased sales in Argentina and higher seasonal supplies in the U.S. Wheat prices also fell, albeit less sharply, due to ongoing harvests in Russia. Rice prices remained stable in November.

Since peaking in April 2022, global agricultural food commodity prices have declined by almost 25% as of October 2023, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index (Figure 1). Contributing to the decrease were strong harvests in large food producing countries, steep declines in shipping costs, and more affordable energy and fertilizer prices (Figure 2).

The BIMSTEC - Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation – country group consists of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand. Together, these countries are home to more than 712 food-insecure people, and the prevalence of food insecurity has increased in the majority of the region since 2014. Given this food security situation, India’s recent export ban of non-basmati white rice and export duty on parboiled rice raise significant concerns for the region.

Since early 2020, Guatemala has faced a multitude of food security shocks: from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on movement and disruptions to agricultural trade to widespread flooding following several major tropical storms to skyrocketing staple food prices. A new article in World Development examines the immediate and longer term impact of these shocks on households’ incomes, diets, food security, and migration decisions, particularly in rural areas.

Food prices continued to decline, albeit more slowly, in October, according to the latest FAO Food Price Index. The Index was down 0.5 percent from September and 10.9 percent from October 2022.

The FAO Food Price Index remained virtually unchanged month-to-month in September and almost 24 percent lower than the peak reached in March 2022.

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2023 Midyear Update finds that while some countries have seen improvements in hunger and malnutrition in the first half of 2023, high levels of acute food insecurity remain worldwide. As in previous years, conflict, climate change, and economic shocks continue to be the main drivers of food crisis, with conflict playing the predominant role from January through August 2023.