Emerging Trends in the Global Soybean Complex
Global changes in soybean production and consumption are reshaping global markets. Global oilseed prices have fallen considerably since last year’s record highs. World soybean production is likely to hit a record high in 2023/24, with global ending stocks projected to rebuild for the second consecutive year. Global soybean trade continues to be driven by China, which accounts for about 60% of total soybean imports. China’s domestic consumption has grown at about 4% per year over the past 10 years.
Despite improved global market conditions, high food price inflation persists
Since peaking in April 2022, global agricultural food commodity prices have declined by almost 25% as of October 2023, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index (Figure 1). Contributing to the decrease were strong harvests in large food producing countries, steep declines in shipping costs, and more affordable energy and fertilizer prices (Figure 2).
How India's Rice Export Bans Could Impact Regional Trade
The BIMSTEC - Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation – country group consists of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand. Together, these countries are home to more than 712 food-insecure people, and the prevalence of food insecurity has increased in the majority of the region since 2014. Given this food security situation, India’s recent export ban of non-basmati white rice and export duty on parboiled rice raise significant concerns for the region.
Food Security and Incomes in Guatemala During Food Crises
Since early 2020, Guatemala has faced a multitude of food security shocks: from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on movement and disruptions to agricultural trade to widespread flooding following several major tropical storms to skyrocketing staple food prices. A new article in World Development examines the immediate and longer term impact of these shocks on households’ incomes, diets, food security, and migration decisions, particularly in rural areas.
FAO Food price Index Declines in October, But Volatility in Some Markets Remains
Food prices continued to decline, albeit more slowly, in October, according to the latest FAO Food Price Index. The Index was down 0.5 percent from September and 10.9 percent from October 2022.
Food Price Index Stable in September But Rice Prices Remain a Concern
The FAO Food Price Index remained virtually unchanged month-to-month in September and almost 24 percent lower than the peak reached in March 2022.
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
To address rising domestic prices for rice, India banned exports of non-basmati rice on July 20, 2023—a move many feared would drive global prices even higher. Since then, these worries have been realized: Thailand’s benchmark price for rice has increased 14 percent, Viet Nam’s rice prices are up 22 percent, and India’s white rice prices are up 12 percent.
Good News for Some Countries, But Acute Food Insecurity Persists Worldwide: Global Report on Food Crises Midyear Update Released
The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2023 Midyear Update finds that while some countries have seen improvements in hunger and malnutrition in the first half of 2023, high levels of acute food insecurity remain worldwide. As in previous years, conflict, climate change, and economic shocks continue to be the main drivers of food crisis, with conflict playing the predominant role from January through August 2023.
Food Price Index Declined in August, While Rice Prices Spiked
The FAO Food Price Index fell by around 2 percent in August, driven by declines in cereal, vegetable oil, dairy, and meat indices. This decline placed the Index 24 percent below the peak seen in March 2022. The major exception was rice prices, which saw a significant increase in August.
Rising Vegetable Oil Prices Drive Up FAO Food Price Index
While the FAO Food Price Index saw a minor increase in July, it remains 16 percent below its July 2022 levels. Rising vegetable oil prices drove the month-to-month increase.