Food Price Monitor

• Hard wheat: Price volatility for hard wheat remains high due to uncertainty in Black Sea exports and deterioration of production prospects in several major exporting countries.  
• Soft Wheat: Similar to hard wheat, high price volatility for soft wheat is stemmed from adverse weather conditions in key exporting countries. 
•  Maize: Maize prices continued to experience high volatility with mixed production conditions in the US Midwest and dryness in Argentina. However, strong export flows from Brazil likely eased supply concerns.  
• Rice price volatility was high in August due to the effects of India’s recent export ban were felt in global markets. 
• Soybean: Soybean price volatility was high in August with the hot and dry weather conditions in the US Midwest and strong international demand. 
• Coffee: The coffee market has seen relatively low price volatility, thanks to higher coffee yields in Brazil and Vietnam, resulting in ample supply. 
• Cocoa: Cocoa prices exhibited high volatility in August with crop problems in West Africa forecast to contribute to a global supply deficit. Moreover, inventories have declined.  
• Sugar: Sugar prices have remained stable, supported by favorable output prospects in major exporting countries such as India and Thailand. 
• Cotton price: Cotton price showed high volatility due to lower crop yields in India and higher global demand for cotton.  

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in July with extreme heat continuing in key producing countries and exports from the Black Sea disrupted following the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Soft wheat price volatility was high in July as extreme heat continued in key producing countries and supply concerns increased with the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was high in July. The suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to supply concerns, along with weather swings in the corn belt region of the U.S. Rice price volatility continued at high levels in July due to adverse weather. Top exporter India banned exports, sending prices climbing and contributing to concerns about the outlook for global supplies. Soybean price volatility was high in July with higher Chinese demand prospects in the face of yield concerns in the United States. Sugar price volatility eased to low levels in July with strong Brazilian production prospects. Cotton price volatility remained high in July with stressed crop conditions in the U.S. and lower demand prospects globally. Coffee price volatility eased to low levels in July as conditions for the harvest in Brazil appeared favorable, and output forecasts are optimistic. Coffee price volatility eased to low levels in July as conditions for the harvest in Brazil appeared favorable, and output forecasts are optimistic. 

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in June amid weather worries in some key producers such as Argentina, Canada, the EU and the US. Soft wheat price volatility was high in June amid weather worries in some key producers such as Argentina, Canada, the EU and the US. Maize price volatility was high in June amid sharp weather swings in the corn belt region of the US, the world's largest producer and exporter of corn. Rice price volatility continue to be at high levels in June amid concerns over the global supply as El Nino threatens yields in key producers. Importers have started building inventories at higher rates, thus pushing prices higher. Soybean price volatility was high in June amid worries about the adverse impact of hot, dry weather in the US Midwest on yield potential. Cocoa price volatility was low in June despite concerns about lower supplies the world's top cocoa producers, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Coffee price volatility remained high in June amid crop concerns on the impact of El Nino weather patterns on Central and South American coffee producers. Cotton price volatility remained high in June as futures prices fell in anticipation of higher global cotton production. Sugar price volatility remained high in June amid concerns of a tight supply tempered by sluggish global import demand.

Price volatility in hard wheat was high in May as futures prices fell amid expectations of larger supplies from Russia, India, the EU, and Ukraine. Soft wheat price volatility was medium in May amid reduced production of soft red winter wheat in the U.S. Maize price volatility was low in May as corn area and yield forecast remain unchanged in the U.S. Corn production is raised in Ukraine and Brazil, and lower under poorer conditions in Argentina. Rice price volatility continue to be at high levels overall in May as increased production in India is offset by reductions in Southeast Asia. Unfavorable weather in China and Pakistan is expected to result in production shortfalls. Soybean price volatility was low overall in May due to a strong supply situation with output recovering in Argentina and increased supply in the U.S. and Brazil. Cocoa price volatility was low in May despite lower supplies from the world's leading cocoa producer, Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in May amid crops concerns on the impact of  El Nino weather patterns on Central and South American coffee producers. Cotton price volatility remained high in May as futures prices fell in anticipation of higher global cotton production. Larger crops in the U.S. and Pakistan offset bale reduction in China. Sugar price volatility remained high in May as futures prices fell in anticipation of stronger supply due to weather developments in Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia.

Price volatility in hard wheat was low in April. Wheat availability is perceived to be ample as growing conditions appear to be mostly favorable and Russian supply continues to pad international markets. These factors outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the ban during April imposed by several Eastern European countries on Ukrainian imports. As with hard wheat, soft wheat price volatility was low in April due to a favorable supply outlook characterized by mostly favorable growing conditions, which outweighed concerns over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Maize price volatility was low in April due in part to solid planting progress and improved weather in the U.S., as well as expectations of a strong upcoming harvest in Brazil. As with wheat, expected ample availabilities outweighed concerns about the uncertain future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Rice price volatility was at high levels overall in April and remains the outlier among major grains. The volatility in rice prices comes as the supply outlook appears increasingly tight, and demand remains strong – particularly from Indonesia. Earlier flooding in Pakistan has reduced availabilities, and production challenges in South and Southeast Asia may emerge soon depending on the timing and strength of the likely upcoming El Niño. Soybean price volatility was low overall in April due to a strong supply situation. Production levels in Brazil are likely to break records, weather has improved in the United States, and crude oil prices are down – which has put downward pressure on soybean oil prices. Cocoa price volatility was high April with lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire and lower exports from Nigeria. Price volatility was high despite growing inventorie s in port warehouses. Coffee price volatility remained high in April. Despite a likely decline in demand with the prospect of a slowing global economy, supplies remain tight with coffee inventories falling. Cotton price volatility was high in April despite the USDA’s projection of higher ending stocks. Uncertainty around future demand in the face of recession fears may be contributing to the volatility, along with lower expected outturn in India. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in April due to several factors affecting sugar production in major producing countries. 
 

Price volatility in soft wheat was low in March as the mid-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative contributed to calm markets, though the announcement by Russia of further conditions for the agreement have since caused uncertainty about the initiative’s future. While the supply outlook is mostly favorable, there were some concerns over poor conditions of incoming cropsthe US winter wheat crop and continued dryness in North Africa. in the United States. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low in March as the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative eased supply concerns. However, the future of the agreement is still in doubt as Russia announced further conditions for its extension beyond 60 days. Maize price volatility was low in March due in part to the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Low export demand due to concerns over the global economic outlook outweighed poor conditions in Argentina and uncertainly over the future of the Black Sea agreement. Rice price volatility was at moderate levels overall in March despite generally favorable growing conditions and no major shifts in demand. Volatility may be the result of the influx of new product in global markets followed by an upturn in buying interest from Indonesia. egardless, this month’s volatility reading should not signal concern. Soybean price volatility was low overall in March with record harvests in Brazil and low demand for US exports.  Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in March with some concerns over lower supplies from Côte d'Ivoire. Coffee price volatility remained high in March with ongoing global supply concerns. There were downgrades in Arabica production estimates for both Brazil and Columbia. Cotton price volatility was high in March even as production prospects remain strong and demand is forecast to fall. As in the previous month, volatility may have been driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears. Sugar price volatility was at high levels in March due to the prospects of tight global supplies and strong demand. The announced cut in OPEC+ output sent demand for ethanol soaring. 
 

Price volatility in soft wheat was low overall in January with updated higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries likely outweighing concerns over the continuing war in Urkaine and uncertainty over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. As with soft wheat, hard wheat price volatility was low overall in February with higher production estimates in several wheat producing countries. This was likely enough to offset concerns over production prospects in Ukraine, and current shipments already running about a third behind the previous season according to Bloomberg. 

Maize price volatility was low overall in February. As with wheat, low volatility suggests sufficient global maize supplies even as dry weather has impacted production in Argentina and the future of the Black Sea export corridor is uncertain. There was slack demand from exporters in the U.S.

Rice price volatility was low overall in February. Prices varied little as buyers generally waited for the new crop to arrive on the market. The USDA outlook is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.

Soybean price volatility was moderate overall in February as stocks of last year’s crop tightened in the U.S. and production concerns persist in Argentina over dry weather. However, the solid outturn in Brazil likely dampened volatility compared to what it would have been.

Cocoa price volatility was moderate overall in February over supply tightness in top producer Côte d'Ivoire.

Coffee price volatility remained high in February following a poor crop in Colombia last year and ongoing concerns about production in the world’s top exporter Brazil.

Cotton price volatility was high in February despite strong inventories and decent production prospects. Volatility was possibly driven by uncertainty around how much demand will fall amid recession fears.

Sugar price volatility was at high levels in February on the prospects of reduced global output.