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When Policy Responses Make Things Worse: The Case of Export Restrictions for Agricultural Products
When the global prices of staple commodities surge, some governments react immediately by imposing trade-restricting measures in order to insulate domestic prices from rising world prices. During the global food price crisis of 2007–2008, such behavior was observed among many governments, particularly in net food-exporting countries, in response to the impending food security shock. As many as 16 countries imposed some form of export restriction, such as a ban or export tax, on commodities including rice, wheat, maize, other grains, and vegetable oils.
Increased tensions in Ukraine again threaten the Black Sea Grain Initiative
On June 6, the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, located about 70 km upstream of Kherson, a port city on the Dnipro River, collapsed, sending an uncontrollable flow of water from its reservoir downstream. Futures markets reacting to the news sent wheat futures up almost 3 percent before falling back later that day.
Food Prices Continue Decline in May, But Concerns about Inflation Remain Strong
The FAO Food Price Index declined by 2.6 percent in May. Compared to May 2022 levels, the Index is 22.1 percent below its all-time high.
Food price inflation continues putting people’s food security at risk
FAO’s Food Price Index edged up slightly in April 2023, the first increase following 12 consecutive months of decline. The increase in this index for internationally traded food commodities was caused by a sharp rise in sugar prices and a moderate rise in meat prices. International prices for cereals, dairy and vegetable oils continued their prolonged decline after peaking in March 2022. Among cereals, only rice prices were up, but this rise was outweighed by further declines in the prices for wheat and maize.
Rice markets in South and Southeast Asia face stresses from El Niño, export restrictions
Agricultural markets—particularly trade in cereals such as wheat and maize—have seen significant volatility over the past year as impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, combined with tight global stocks, drove prices to record (nominal) highs. The rice market, by contrast, has been generally tranquil (Figure 1). Large global supplies and the lack of any direct trade connection to the Ukraine conflict left rice relatively immune to the price spikes seen with other commodities. But recently there have been signs of trouble.