Trade

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to spread rapidly. So far, more than 116,000 cases and over 4,000 deaths have been reported worldwide. Since its start in China in December, the outbreak has spread to over 100 countries in less than three months. To contain the pandemic, entire cities and regions in Asia and Europe have been by and large shut down, putting a halt to much economic activity, quarantining workers and idling factories and many service activities. Major sports events are being cancelled and, around the world, international travel is being curtailed. In an unprecedented move, the IMF and World Bank have decided to hold their spring meetings virtually to avoid a large gathering of people in Washington, D.C., that might become a breeding ground for the virus to spread.

The FAO Food Price Index continued to rise in January for the fourth consecutive month. While the month-on-month increase from December was marginal (0.7 percent), the Index reached 11.3 percent higher than its January 2019 levels. The increase was driven mainly by vegetable oil prices, although cereal prices also played a role to a lesser extent.

Climate change is almost certain to increase the volatility of agricultural output over the next 30 years—particularly in low-income countries in Africa south of the Sahara and other areas around the world where subsistence farming is a major source of food production. Climate-driven impacts such as droughts and extreme weather events will raise the risk of severe food shortages for smallholder farms and in rural and urban communities throughout those countries.

Strong rebounds in global vegetable oil prices, as well as sugar and dairy prices, drove the FAO Food Price Index to its highest point in five years in December. The December Index rose by 4.4. percent from November, the third such consecutive monthly increase, and reached 181.7 points.

How can we feed 10 billion people by 2050? How much and in what ways will climate change impact global food production? What can be done to ensure that the world’s agriculture and food systems remain sustainable in both the short and the long term?