Data

The FAO Food Price Index declined somewhat in September, falling 1.4 percent from August to an average of 165.4 points. This represents a 7.4 percent decline from September 2017 levels.

The Cereal Price Index fell by 2.8 percent from August. Maize prices saw the most significant month-to-month reduction, falling by around 4 percent due to ample global supplies and prospects for a large U.S. crop. Wheat prices also declined in September due to strong exports from Russia. Rice prices experienced the smallest decline (1 percent) due in part to an appreciation of the Thai Baht.

The challenges facing global food security continue to increase, driven by ongoing conflict and climate shocks. According to the 2018 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report (released last week by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO), 821 million people were undernourished around the world in 2017; this represents a further rise from the 815 million estimated by the 2017 report. This troubling rise in undernourishment reverses progress seen over the past decade.

The FAO Food Price Index remained virtually unchanged in August, although cereal prices rose as a result of declining crop prospects. At 167.6 points, the Index is around 9 percent lower than its August 2017 levels.

Hard wheat prices continued to experience excessive volatility this week, according to the Food Security Portal’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System . Futures prices for hard wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade rose in early August, reaching 586, 579, and 584 cents per bushel on August 6, 7, and 8, respectively; this is compared to 513 cents per bushel on July 6. According to the Wall Street Journal , Chicago wheat futures reached a three-year high in early August.

Hard wheat futures prices, 2015-2018

The FAO Food Price Index fell sharply in July, the largest such decline since December 2017. The Index dropped by around 3.7 percent month-to-month from June, as well as 3.7 percent from its July 2017 levels. The decline is driven by reductions across all sub-indices.

The Cereal Price Index fell 3.6 percent from June and 0.8 percent from July 2017. The price of wheat, maize, and rice declined in June, although maize and wheat prices crept back up toward the end of the month due to concerns over production prospects.