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In late March, the IPC Technical Working Group in Somalia conducted an update of their analysis released in February 2025. This update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict. Update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict.
The reduction in humanitarian funding is already affecting the nutrition, health, and WASH service delivery, impacting the nutrition outcome for two rural livelihoods which have worsened from Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) to Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4).
The total acute malnutrition burden estimate for January to December 2025 has also increased to 1.8 million children aged 6-59 months, including 479,000 children likely to be severely malnourished. Compared to the January 2025 analysis, with a total burden estimate of 1.7 million for the same period, the revised estimate reflects an increase of nearly 47,000 children facing acute malnutrition.

Escalating conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has exacerbated the food crisis, leaving an estimated 27.7 million Congolese (24 percent of the analysed population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between January and June 2025. This includes approximately 3.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and over 23.8 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In this projection update, the situation deteriorated in the four provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika, with more than 10.3 million people facing Phase 3 or above, including 7.9 million people in Phase 3 and 2.3 million in Phase 4.

The IPC acute malnutrition situation shows for the current period (October 2024 to February 2025) disparate trends in malnutrition levels in all counties compared to February 2024. Some areas have improved, such as Kilifi and Saku (Marsabit), now in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert). However, conditions have worsened in Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Kitui, and Makueni, with Garissa and Wajir declining to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). Several counties, including Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Baringo (Tiaty), and Marsabit (North Horr and Laisamis), remain in Phase 4, indicating persistent critical levels of acute malnutrition.
Malnutrition remains a major concern, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, requiring urgent and sustained multi-sectoral interventions. Some areas, like Kieni, Mbeere, Meru North, and Tharaka, remain unclassified due to insufficient data.

Approximately 2.2 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between February and March 2025. This includes 266,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) who are experiencing large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. The population in Phase 4 are concentrated in five arid counties: Turkana, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, and Marsabit. The increase in populations in Phase 3 or above from October – December 2024 is due to short rains, reversing the gains made over the previous three seasons and adversely affecting household food security in the arid and semi-arid lands.

The acute malnutrition situation in Chad remains similar to the situation last year (2023-2024) with slight variations. Approximately 2 million children aged 6 to 59 months are suffering or expected to suffer acute malnutrition between October 2024 and September 2025 with 537,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Over 300,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period.

Nearly 3.4 million people (17 percent of the analysed population) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity between January to March 2025. Of that total, 442,000 people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 2.9 million people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Poor rainfall has reduced crop yields and depleted pasture and water sources, while localized flooding has damaged crops and displaced riverine communities. Conflict and insecurity continue to disrupt livelihoods and restrict market access.
Although the current food insecurity levels have improved by 15 percent compared to last year—mainly due to better rainfall and humanitarian aid—conditions are expected to worsen. Between April and June 2025, below-average rainfall, high food prices, conflict, and further flooding could push 4.4 million people (23 percent of the population) into IPC Phase 3 or above.

An estimated 1.7 million children between 6-59 months in Somalia will likely suffer acute malnutrition in 2025, including 466,000 cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 1.2 million Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) cases. Around 64 percent of cases are concentrated in southern Somalia. Compared to last year, GAM is expected to rise by 4 percent, while SAM will increase by 9 percent. Between April and June 2025, malnutrition is likely to worsen due to disease outbreaks and reduced food access. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in ten areas, including West Golis, Northern and Central pastoral zones, and several IDP settlements. In 31 other areas, malnutrition will worsen but remain within the same IPC Phase, with ten locations in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), including Mogadishu IDPs, Shabelle Riverine, and Juba Cattle Pastoral.