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With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely. Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of
preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.

After a careful review of the recent IPC analyses conducted by FEWS NET and the Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG), the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has concluded that famine conditions are prevalent in parts of North Darfur, including the Zamzam camp south of El Fasher. The escalating violence in Sudan, which has been persisting for over 15 months now, has severely impeded humanitarian access and pushed parts of North Darfur into Famine, notably Zamzam IDP camp.

Areas are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) when at least one in five (or 20 percent) people or households have an extreme lack of food and face starvation and destitution, resulting in extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death.

The Zamzam Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp is located approximately 12 kilometres south of El Fasher town and represents one of the largest IDP camps in Sudan, with an estimated population of at least 500,000.

The scale of devastation brought by the escalating violence in El Fasher town is profound and harrowing. Persistent, intense, and widespread clashes have forced many residents to seek refuge in IDP camps, where they face a stark reality: basic services are scant or absent, compounding the hardship of displacement. Around 320,000 people are believed to have been displaced since mid-April in El Fasher. Around 150,000 to 200,000 of them are believed to have moved to Zamzam camp in search of security, basic services, and food since mid-May. The camp population has expanded to over half a million in a few weeks.

The latest Chronic Food Insecurity analysis revealed that the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains critical, with about 40 percent of the population facing IPC Level 3 or above chronic food insecurity. This includes 15.7 million people facing Severe (IPC Level 4) and 25.1 million people facing Moderate (IPC Level 3). Despite the country's abundant natural resources and government efforts, chronic food insecurity persists due to several factors such as protacted armed conflict, large-scale displacement, governance challenges, and recurrent natural disasters.

Chronic food insecurity is primarily driven by armed conflicts – particularly in the eastern regions – which has resulted in large-scale displacement and loss of livelihoods. Governance challenges, including inequitable resource distribution, weak law enforcement, and limited socio-economic investment, further exacerbate the issue. Health crises, such as epidemics and animal diseases, alongside crop attacks, further disrupt food systems and agricultural production, aggravating the food crisis by compromising the food security of populations.

Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure and recurrent natural disasters such as floods and landslides hinder access to essential services such as healthcare, clean water, and electricity. Low agricultural productivity, characterized by a cereal deficit and limited access to quality inputs, remains a significant challenge.

Finally, the depreciation of the Congolese Franc against the US dollar has led to escalating prices and reduced purchasing power, exacerbating the effects of widespread poverty.

The results of this analysis indicate that the insecurity situation acute food intake remains more or less stable but worrying, with 41%
of the analyzed population classified in a Crisis and Emergency situation. Approximately 2.5 million people in Crisis and Emergency situations (Phase 3 and 4 of the IPC) are in need of immediate food assistance. Among the 2.5 million people experiencing high acute food insecurity,

Approximately 508 thousand people are in an emergency situation (Phase 4 of the IPC) and around 2 million people are in Crisis (Phase 3) of the IPC).

Between April and June 2024, an estimated 221,000 people or 19 percent of the analysed population (out of 1.18 million people), are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 38,000 people (3 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 183,000 in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

For the projected period (July to December 2024), generally characterized by very high temperatures and movements of pastoralist households, an estimated 285,000 people, representing 24 percent of the population analysed, are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity. Approximately 53,000 people will be in Phase 4 and 232,000 in Phase 3.