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While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2023 estimates that over a quarter of a billion people were acutely food-insecure and required urgent food assistance in 58 food-crisis countries/territories in 2022. This is the highest number in the seven-year history of the GRFC.

In April 2023, Nepal experienced high prices for both food and non-food items. The inflation rate for food and beverage prices on a year-on-year basis stood at 6.9 percent. Although this is lower than the 7.4 percent recorded in March and April 2022, it still signifies a considerable rise in the cost of food from its already elevated levels. Moreover, the consumer price index (CPI) exhibited a more substantial increase compared to the wage rate index, with a 7.8 percent rise versus 6.1 percent. As a result, informal sector employees faced a decline in their real wages.

Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine. Likewise, volatility in prices has also declined considerably from recent highs. With the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, there is hope that the world is recovering from the price shocks of the past year. Yet, while prices have fallen in international markets, they have frequently remained high at local level, particularly in net food importing developping countries reflecting the weakening of their currencies against the US dollar. As a result, food price inflation is still a serious concern in many countries, also because post-farm gate costs for shipping and processing remain subject to inflationary pressures.

Nepal’s agrifood system remained economically stable during March of 2023. The year-on-year inflation in food and beverage prices has cooled down to 5.6% compared to 7.5% in Feb/March 2022. Field reports however suggest that this downward movement in prices have not yet translated to substantial changes in the cost of consumer and agricultural market goods. Inflation in food and beverage prices is marginally lower than the previous year: The cost of food and beverages increased by 5.6 percent from March 2022 to March 2023. A sharp 8.8 percent decline in the price of vegetables compared to last year helped lower the inflation in food prices. Food inflation was the highest in the mid-hills and mountains (8.8 percent) and the lowest in the Kathmandu Valley (4.5 percent).