Resources

Sep 12th, 2023

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor September 2023

The war in Ukraine and India's export restrictions on rice have dominated commodity news in recent weeks. In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month. Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. Global soybean and maize production prospects are improved this year with some stock rebuilding anticipated despite dryness in North America, Argentina and parts of Europe.
Sep 1st, 2023

IPC Alert - Haiti, Sep 2023

Haiti: Gang activity, climatic shocks drive 4.35 million people into high levels of acute food insecurity
Sep 1st, 2023

IPC Alert - Somalia, Sep 2023

Somalia: Nearly 4.3 million people likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity, 1.5 million children expected to be acutely malnourished
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Nigeria

The prices of staple grains on international markets began to rise in mid-2020 in response to higher fertilizer prices and supply constraints associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. They further spiked in early 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This brief examines the impact of these events on poverty in Nigeria. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c).
The methodological approach is similar in all six country studies. First, we examine the effect of the increases in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below.
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Burkina Faso

The prices of many agricultural commodities, including many staple grains, started to increase in mid-2020 partly due to supply chain bottlenecks associated with the outbreak of Covid-19. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 caused an additional spike in commodity prices, particularly wheat and maize. This brief estimates the impact of these price increases on poverty in Burkina Faso. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c).
We use the same approach in all six country studies. The analysis starts by exploring the effect of the rise in international grain prices on the real price of selected grains in the domestic markets of the country. Next, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household in a nationally representative survey, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) are estimated based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below. The methods are described in more detail in a method brief.
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Mali

Because of low incomes and associated large shares of expenditure on food, Mali is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key grain staples such as maize and wheat. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine develop ments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of relatively stable prices on world mar kets, the prices of key food staples began to rise during 2020. This period of price increases, span ning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Mali.
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Ethiopia

After a long period of relatively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the Covid-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Ethiopia.
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Niger

The prices of staple grains began rising in mid-2020, reflecting higher fertilizer prices and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the outbreak of Covid-19, and increased sharply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. How have these dramatic increases in world prices of cereals affected poverty in low-income countries? This brief estimates the impact of higher world grain prices on poverty in Niger. Other briefs in this series examine the impact of higher food prices on poverty in Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c).
All six studies use a similar approach. First, we examine the effect of the rise in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below.
Aug 30th, 2023

Poverty impacts of food price increases in Kenya

Kenya is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key staple grains such as maize and wheat, both because these are important in diets and because Kenya depends on im ports of these products. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine developments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of rela tively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Kenya. Figure 1 shows the movements in the prices of four key grain staples—maize, rice, sorghum and wheat—from the beginning of 2020.