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During the current period of analysis, from July to September 2024, 1.15 million people in Namibia (38 percent of the analysed population) face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent action to reduce food gaps and protect livelihoods; all the 14 areas of analysis are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents an improvement compared to what was projected in the last July 2023 analysis, where 1.44 million people (48 percent) were expected to face high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) for the same period (July-September 2024). While the main assumption on the impact of El Nino was adjusted, the deterioration of the food security situation is still linked to the negative impact of El Nino on crop and livestock production, price shocks, economic decline and unemployment.

In the first projection period (October 2024 – March 2025), the food security situation is expected to worsen due to the start of the lean season, and seasonal price increases, where 1.26 million people (41 percent of the analysed population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above. Most of the areas are likely to remain classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The Integrated Phase classification for Acute Malnutrition (IPC AMN) analysis conducted in July 2024 shows overall improvement. However, some areas continue to report high levels of acute malnutrition. Turkana South improved from IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical). Turkana Central, Turkana West, Turkana North, North Horr, Laisamis, Mandera, and Tiaty improved though within the same phase; IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical).

The nutrition situation is expected to continue improving over the projection period, although it will likely remain within the same acute malnutrition classification phases. The major improvement in reducing the prevalence of global acute malnutrition is attributed to enhanced nutrition and food security interventions in addition to improved food security characterized by positive impact of long rains in the pastoral communities associated with improved milk availability and consumption, and in agropastoral communities increased food stocks and vegetables resulting from the favorable cumulative performance from the 2023 short rains and the 2024 long rains.

The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis covers all 22 departments of Guatemala, revealing that approximately 2.7 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during the first projection period. These individuals will require urgent intervention. This figure is projected to rise to 2.8 million people between March and May 2025, aligning with the onset of the lean season.

Households at the highest risk of falling into IPC Phases 3 and 4 include those primarily dependent on informal trade, subsistence agriculture, and seasonal labor. Additionally, the most vulnerable populations are those who spend a large portion of their income on food, particularly those living in extreme poverty in rural areas with high rates of unmet basic needs.

By the end of 2024, an estimated 609,808 children will be acutely malnourished, with 118,570 projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition—a 34 percent increase from 2023 levels. Additionally, around 222,918 pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to be malnourished. These projections are based on SMART nutrition surveys conducted between November 2023 and February 2024.

Acute malnutrition is a major public health problem in several parts of the Government of Yemen (GoY) areas. Of particular concern are two districts in Hodeidah Southern lowland and one in Taiz lowland (Makha) that are classified in IPC AMN Phase 5 (extremely critical) in the current period (from November 2023 to June 2024). This classification is projected to expand to four districts - Mawza and Al Makha in Taiz lowland and Hays and Al Khawkhah in Hodeidah lowlands— in IPC AMN Phase 5 during the July to October 2024 projection period. These districts require immediate intervention to prevent increased morbidity and potential mortality among children under 5 years of age.

Mozambique is facing high levels of acute food insecurity in the aftermath of the cyclone season, impacting 63 of the most affected districts, which represent 39 percent of the country's total.

From April to September 2024, approximately 2.79 million people are experiencing Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 510,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 2.28 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An additional 3.58 million people are classified as being in Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2).

From October 2024 to March 2025, the situation is expected to worsen, with the number of people requiring urgent assistance rising to 3.3 million. Of these, 773,000 will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

This escalation is anticipated due to the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula and Niassa, and the effects of the predicted La Niña in the southern and central regions of the country.

In FEWS NET’s drought-affected countries (excluding the DRC), needs are assessed to be 50 percent higher than the 2023/24 lean season and higher than was estimated during the peak of the last strong El Niño in 2016/17.2 Since November 2023, FEWS NET has warned that the strong El Niño event in 2023/24 would most likely result in drought-induced, below-average 2024 harvests across much of southern Africa, including in two of the region’s key suppliers, South Africa and Zambia. Indeed, a historic dry spell and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to well below-average maize harvests across the region (Figure 1), ranging from a 10 percent deficit in South Africa to a 60 percent deficit in Zimbabwe compared to their respective five-year averages, according to national government and FEWS NET estimates. As of August, many poor households in the region have either nearly or completely exhausted their stocks from the 2024 harvest and are increasingly resorting to unsustainable coping strategies or experiencing food consumption gaps. Most of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Angola, and conflict-affected areas of the DRC are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders should rapidly mobilize now to respond to high food assistance needs through early 2025.

Prolonged dry spells, high temperatures, and economic challenges have left approximately 293,000 people in rural Lesotho (19 percent of the population) facing severe food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, from May to September 2024. Immediate interventions are crucial to address food gaps, protect livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition.

The most affected districts include Maseru and Qacha’s Nek, where 30 percent of the population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), followed by Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing at 25 percent. The situation is expected to worsen, with around 403,000 people (27 percent of the rural population) projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2024 to March 2025, driven by ongoing price hikes and the potential impact of La Niña, while food availability remains stable but increasingly unaffordable for poorer households.