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The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis covers all 22 departments of Guatemala, revealing that approximately 2.7 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during the first projection period. These individuals will require urgent intervention. This figure is projected to rise to 2.8 million people between March and May 2025, aligning with the onset of the lean season.

Households at the highest risk of falling into IPC Phases 3 and 4 include those primarily dependent on informal trade, subsistence agriculture, and seasonal labor. Additionally, the most vulnerable populations are those who spend a large portion of their income on food, particularly those living in extreme poverty in rural areas with high rates of unmet basic needs.

By the end of 2024, an estimated 609,808 children will be acutely malnourished, with 118,570 projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition—a 34 percent increase from 2023 levels. Additionally, around 222,918 pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to be malnourished. These projections are based on SMART nutrition surveys conducted between November 2023 and February 2024.

Acute malnutrition is a major public health problem in several parts of the Government of Yemen (GoY) areas. Of particular concern are two districts in Hodeidah Southern lowland and one in Taiz lowland (Makha) that are classified in IPC AMN Phase 5 (extremely critical) in the current period (from November 2023 to June 2024). This classification is projected to expand to four districts - Mawza and Al Makha in Taiz lowland and Hays and Al Khawkhah in Hodeidah lowlands— in IPC AMN Phase 5 during the July to October 2024 projection period. These districts require immediate intervention to prevent increased morbidity and potential mortality among children under 5 years of age.

Mozambique is facing high levels of acute food insecurity in the aftermath of the cyclone season, impacting 63 of the most affected districts, which represent 39 percent of the country's total.

From April to September 2024, approximately 2.79 million people are experiencing Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 510,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 2.28 million in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An additional 3.58 million people are classified as being in Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2).

From October 2024 to March 2025, the situation is expected to worsen, with the number of people requiring urgent assistance rising to 3.3 million. Of these, 773,000 will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

This escalation is anticipated due to the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula and Niassa, and the effects of the predicted La Niña in the southern and central regions of the country.

Prolonged dry spells, high temperatures, and economic challenges have left approximately 293,000 people in rural Lesotho (19 percent of the population) facing severe food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, from May to September 2024. Immediate interventions are crucial to address food gaps, protect livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition.

The most affected districts include Maseru and Qacha’s Nek, where 30 percent of the population is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), followed by Mohale’s Hoek and Quthing at 25 percent. The situation is expected to worsen, with around 403,000 people (27 percent of the rural population) projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2024 to March 2025, driven by ongoing price hikes and the potential impact of La Niña, while food availability remains stable but increasingly unaffordable for poorer households.

In FEWS NET’s drought-affected countries (excluding the DRC), needs are assessed to be 50 percent higher than the 2023/24 lean season and higher than was estimated during the peak of the last strong El Niño in 2016/17.2 Since November 2023, FEWS NET has warned that the strong El Niño event in 2023/24 would most likely result in drought-induced, below-average 2024 harvests across much of southern Africa, including in two of the region’s key suppliers, South Africa and Zambia. Indeed, a historic dry spell and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to well below-average maize harvests across the region (Figure 1), ranging from a 10 percent deficit in South Africa to a 60 percent deficit in Zimbabwe compared to their respective five-year averages, according to national government and FEWS NET estimates. As of August, many poor households in the region have either nearly or completely exhausted their stocks from the 2024 harvest and are increasingly resorting to unsustainable coping strategies or experiencing food consumption gaps. Most of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Angola, and conflict-affected areas of the DRC are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders should rapidly mobilize now to respond to high food assistance needs through early 2025.

With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely. Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of
preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.

After a careful review of the recent IPC analyses conducted by FEWS NET and the Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG), the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has concluded that famine conditions are prevalent in parts of North Darfur, including the Zamzam camp south of El Fasher. The escalating violence in Sudan, which has been persisting for over 15 months now, has severely impeded humanitarian access and pushed parts of North Darfur into Famine, notably Zamzam IDP camp.

Areas are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) when at least one in five (or 20 percent) people or households have an extreme lack of food and face starvation and destitution, resulting in extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death.

The Zamzam Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp is located approximately 12 kilometres south of El Fasher town and represents one of the largest IDP camps in Sudan, with an estimated population of at least 500,000.

The scale of devastation brought by the escalating violence in El Fasher town is profound and harrowing. Persistent, intense, and widespread clashes have forced many residents to seek refuge in IDP camps, where they face a stark reality: basic services are scant or absent, compounding the hardship of displacement. Around 320,000 people are believed to have been displaced since mid-April in El Fasher. Around 150,000 to 200,000 of them are believed to have moved to Zamzam camp in search of security, basic services, and food since mid-May. The camp population has expanded to over half a million in a few weeks.