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After nearing record levels following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, implied volatility of maize and soybean is now below the historical average. This reflects large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks. By
contrast, wheat prices have remained highly volatile, largely linked to uncertainty caused by the conflict. Ukraine's wheat production this year was 35 percent lower than pre-war levels and prospects for a rebound in 2024 are unlikely. While shipping has resumed out of the Black Sea ports through the so-called humanitarian corridor, persistent attacks on export infrastructure continue to roil markets. Meanwhile rice prices have declined in the past few weeks, reflecting a smaller-than anticipated impact of El Niño on production, and prompting some countries to reverse market-distorting policies.

High levels of acute food insecurity persist in 2023 due to protracted food crises and new shocks – but there are improvements in some countries.

The war in Ukraine and India's export restrictions on rice have dominated commodity news in recent weeks. In late July, India announced a ban on non-Basmati rice exports and has since then imposed further restrictions on Basmati and parboiled rice exports. Those restrictions, combined with El Niño-related concerns over rice production in the region, have roiled rice markets, with Thai prices rising 20 percent since last month. Wheat prices are still under pressure from abundant Black Sea exports at competitive prices, but markets remain volatile as the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and Russian attacks on Ukraine export facilities have heightened uncertainty. Global soybean and maize production prospects are improved this year with some stock rebuilding anticipated despite dryness in North America, Argentina and parts of Europe.