IPC Alerts

Approximately 357,900 children aged 6 and 59 months are suffering or expected
to suffer acute malnutrition between September 2024 and August 2025, with
almost 51 percent (182,700) of cases expected in the Grand Sud-Est and 49
percent (175,200) in the Grand Sud. Of that total, 83,400 children are likely to
suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 274,500 are likely to suffer Moderate
Acute Malnutrition (MAM). The highest caseload of children suffering SAM is in
the Grand Sud-Est region (60 percent), compared to 40 percent in the Grand Sud.
In the first projection period (January – April 2025), the most affected districts in IPC
AMN Phase 3 or above (Critical or worse) will be Nosy Varika, Ifanadiana, Mananjary,
Ikongo, Manakara, Vondrozo, Farafangana and Befotaka for the Grand Sud-Est, and
Amboasary for the Grand Sud.
The nutrition situation is projected to improve slightly in the second projection period
(May – August 2025). Only two districts will remain in Phase 3, namely Farafangana
and Amboasary, while three districts will be in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable): Toliara
II, Taolagnaro and Vohipeno. The other districts will remain in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
While there has been a slight improvement in the nutritional situation compared with
previous years in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est, the population’s diet remains
insufficient, both in quality and quantity, and dietary practices remain inadequate.
Reduced access to latrines and insufficient hygiene practices as well as reduced access
to health services are also contributing factors to the acute malnutrition situation.
Access to drinking water and sanitation services also remains a major problem with
open defecation a widespread practice. Childhood illnesses are another contributing
factor, with diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Infections (AFI) highly prevalent in both
regions. Low vaccination coverage also exposes children to infectious diseases
that compromise their nutritional status. Vaccination coverage varies between 28
and 76 percent in Grand Sud, and between 32 and 77 percent in Grand Sud-Est.

Between September 2024 and March 2025, approximately 2 million people (31 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity - classified as IPC Phase 3 or above. Nearly 1.7 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 307,000 are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The populations most affected include those who experienced low yields from agricultural production and have already depleted their food reserves. This group includes casual labourers, displaced households, and poor urban families reliant on the market for their food needs. While these individuals are dispersed throughout the country, their presence is comparatively higher in the prefectures of Basse-Kotto, Lim Pendé, Mambéré, Mbomou, Nana-Mambéré, Ouaka, and Ouham-Pendé.

Despite some seasonal improvement compared to the previous update in April 2024—when 2.5 million people (41 percent of the population) were classified in Phase 3 or above —the situation remains concerning due to several factors. These include economic access challenges for certain households, a lack of food reserves, disruptions in internal and cross-border supply chains due to armed violence, flooding impacts, irregular rainfall affecting agriculture (the primary livelihood in most areas), and population displacement.

The situation is expected to deteriorate between April and August 2025 if necessary measures are not implemented. About 2.25 million people (35 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity. During this period, it is estimated that around 1.82 million people will be in Phase 3 and approximately 431,000 people will be in Phase 4.

Nearly 5.4 million children aged 0-59 months in northwest and northeast Nigeria are suffering from acute malnutrition and will likely continue suffering through 2025. This includes about 1.8 million cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 3.6 million cases of Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, approximately 787,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are acutely malnourished.

In the current period of May – September 2024, over half of the 133 Local Government Areas (LGAs) assessed were classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 3 (Serious) or Phase 4 (Critical). Specifically, in the northeast, 10 LGAs were in Phase 4 and 21 in Phase 3; in the northwest, there were 24 in Phase 4 and 29 in Phase 3.

Key factors driving this crisis include poor food consumption, inadequate health services, and ongoing food insecurity. The number of acutely malnourished children needing treatment has risen by 23 percent since the last analysis, with SAM cases increasing by 69 percent.

The first projection period from October to December 2024 indicates that acute malnutrition levels in both the northeast and northwest regions are expected to remain largely stable compared to the current period. However, Northern Yobe is likely to see a deterioration in its situation. During the second projection period from January to April 2025, conditions in the northeast are anticipated to remain similar, with the exception of Mobbar and Nganzai in Northern Borno, where a decline is expected.

This FRC alert is issued to express concern about an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip. While an IPC update will be conducted, this Alert serves to draw immediate attention on the need to take urgent action to alleviate this humanitarian catastrophe in areas of the northern Gaza Strip.

Armed violence and conflict continue to affect the livelihoods of people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This, combined with soaring food prices and the prolonged effects of various epidemics have left approximately 25.6 million in high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

Between July to December 2024, around 3 percent of people (around 3.1 million people) are facing critical levels of food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – characterized by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 19 percent (22.4 million people) are facing crisis levels of food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The affected populations are spread throughout the country, however, the most affected populations are mainly displaced people and returnees – concentrated in the provinces of North Kivu, Ituri, South Kivu and Tanganyika, Maindombe – as well as populations affected by natural disasters and unemployment.

The analysis projected for January to June 2025 indicates a situation where food insecurity rates are expected to be almost identical to those of the current situation, with 25.5 million people (22 percent of the population analysed) projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phases 3 or above), including around 3.3 million people who are projected to face critical levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 4) and 22.2 million people who will likely be in Phase 3.

One year into the conflict, the risk of Famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip. Given the recent surge in hostilities, there are growing concerns that this worstcase scenario may materialize. Violence has displaced nearly 2 million people, decimated livelihoods, crippled food systems, destroyed 70 percent of crop fields, severely restricted humanitarian operations and resulted in the collapse of health services and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) systems. Catastrophic acute food insecurity and concerning acute malnutrition levels will continue to prevail if the conflict continues, and humanitarian activities are restricted.

Between September and October 2024, the whole territory is classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). About 1.84 million people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, including nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) and 664,000, in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Acute Malnutrition is at serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 3), ten times higher than before the escalation of the hostilities.

Nearly half of the population (4.7 million people) in the Government of Yemen (GoY) controlled areas experienced high levels of acute food insecurity between July and September 2024, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This included 1.2 million people who experienced critical levels of food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – characterized by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. This reflects a continued, though slower, deterioration in the food security situation compared to the last IPC update (October 2023 – February 2024), when around 4.6 million people were classified in Phase 3 or above.

An estimated 5.8 million people (33 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience heightened hunger between October 2024 and March 2025. The IPC projects that nearly 5.6 million people will likely experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 236,000 people IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Seven additional districts are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to Phase 3 – corresponding to 89 hotspot districts in Zambia. To prevent this dire situation, urgent lifesaving and livelihood assistance is imperative.

The food insecurity is primarily driven by climate related shocks and hazards that affect all districts. Noticeable among these shocks and hazards are prolonged dry spells (leading to droughts), pests and diseases, human-wildlife conflict and high input and food prices, which were mainly driven by exogenous shocks. The prolonged dry spells were largely experienced between December 2023 and March 2024. Occurrences of pest infestations included outbreaks of Fall Army Worms (FAW) and locusts in some parts of the country. Diseases such as the Cassava brown streak disease were also observed to have significantly impacted the seasonal crop performance. In addition, the country suffered an outbreak of cholera that affected over 70 districts. All these drivers of food insecurity were at the backdrop of an already volatile economy, further inundated by exogenous shocks, thereby resulting in increasing commodity prices.

Haiti continues to face a worsening humanitarian crisis, with alarming rates of armed gang violence disrupting daily life, forcing more people to flee their homes and levels of acute food insecurity to rise. Nearly half of the population (48 percent) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) between August 2024 and February 2025. This includes 6,000 people experiencing catastrophic levels of hunger and a collapse of their livelihoods, classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Another 2 million people (18 percent of the population analysed) are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while 3.4 million people face crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). There is a 4 percent increase (1.2 million people) in the prevalence of populations in IPC Phase 3 or above compared to the previous analysis conducted for the same period in August 2023.

An estimated 1.6 million cases of children aged 6 to 59 months are expected to experience acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025. This includes approximately 403,000 children likely to suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Compared to the same season last year, this represents a 14 and 22 percent increase in the burden of both global acute malnutrition (GAM) and SAM, respectively. Regarding nutrition, between October and December 2024 – a period marked by increased disease outbreaks and reduced food access – acute malnutrition is expected to worsen. In eight areas, the situation is projected to escalate to a higher IPC Phase than the current classification. In the remaining twenty-three areas, while deterioration is anticipated, conditions are likely to remain within the same IPC AMN Phase as observed between June and September 2024. This includes seven areas already classified as being in a Critical situation. The rest are expected to remain in the Serious, Alert, or Acceptable Phases, with no major deterioration foreseen.