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Data from May indicates a persistent trend of modest price increases in Nepal. Year-on-year inflation for food and beverage prices was recorded at 5.5 percent, which, though lower compared to 6.9 percent in the previous month and significantly less than in April and May 2022, still denotes an escalation in food prices from an already elevated base. While the high inflation rate impacts all consumers, it is likely to disproportionately strain the finances of the poor, potentially jeopardizing food security. Moreover, the inflation rates for non-food items and services surged to 8.9 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a somewhat milder increase compared to the Wage Rate Index, registering a 7.4 percent growth as opposed to 7.6 percent.

While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farm gate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2023 estimates that over a quarter of a billion people were acutely food-insecure and required urgent food assistance in 58 food-crisis countries/territories in 2022. This is the highest number in the seven-year history of the GRFC.

In April 2023, Nepal experienced high prices for both food and non-food items. The inflation rate for food and beverage prices on a year-on-year basis stood at 6.9 percent. Although this is lower than the 7.4 percent recorded in March and April 2022, it still signifies a considerable rise in the cost of food from its already elevated levels. Moreover, the consumer price index (CPI) exhibited a more substantial increase compared to the wage rate index, with a 7.8 percent rise versus 6.1 percent. As a result, informal sector employees faced a decline in their real wages.