External Event
Virtual seminar

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Online seminar
IFPRI, USAID Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Climate scientists are anticipating an El Niño event in the upcoming boreal winter season (November 2023–February 2024), ending the recent three-year La Niña. In collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, IFPRI is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The event will be organized around four short talks. Part 1 will examine the latest scientific outlook for the 2023 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns. Part 2 will focus on El Niño’s impact on global markets, particularly rice markets. Part 3 will provide a sub-national assessment for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia of potentially affected crops and rural populations. Part 4 will present an economywide socioeconomic impact analysis of El Niño at the national level in selected focus countries, including Malawi, using IFPRI’s RIAPA model. The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential hotspots and proposals for policy options, as well as a review of knowledge gaps, points of uncertainty, and priorities for future research and collaboration.

Overview and Global Implications

  • Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist at University of Maryland (UMD) and NASA, Earth Sciences Division
  • Karyn Tabor, Agroclimatology Advisor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 

Global Markets with a Focus on Rice

Sub-National Implications with a Focus on Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia

Socioeconomic Analysis for Malawi

  • James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), IFPRI
  • Joachim De Weerdt, Senior Research Fellow / Malawi Country Program Leader, IFPRI
  • Andrew Jamali, Research Manager, National Planning Commission, Malawi


  • Channing Arndt, Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI

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