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By combining climate and yield projections with the IIASA Global Biosphere Management Model, researchers say they have identified the likely needed adaptations and transformations for global agricultural systems.

One of the biggest challenges faced by smallholder farmers today is climate change, and the increasingly variable weather patterns that result from it. While farmers in some tropical regions may benefit from rising temperatures, the majority of the world's smallholders will face increased hardship as a result of warmer weather and uncertain rainfall. Future food security, particularly for developing countries, will depend on how populations react to and cope with the challenges presented by climate change.

The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change has released a report for policymakers titled "Achieving Food Security in the Face of Climate Change." According to the report, global food security is constrained by three factors: the quantity of food that can be produced in a given climate; the quantity of food needed by a growing global population; and the effect of food production on the climate. Operating within this "safe space" will ensure food security in the coming years.

With the global population predicted to reach 9 billion by 2050, and incomes in developing countries to continue rising as well, increased global demand for food in the coming decades will place unprecedented pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change poses a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the world’s capacity to feed a growing population.

Worldwide climatic events in 2010 made it clear that food security can be greatly impacted by unexpected changes in climate. Wildfires in Russia, floods in Pakistan and Australia, and drought in China led to increases in the price of staple agricultural commodities and caused widespread fear about the recurrence of a world food crisis. As the world's population continues to grow, a changing climate will present more and more challenges to sustainable agricultural growth and food security.