October WASDE Report Released
The October edition of the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report Released monthly, this report provides data on global and US production and trade of staple commodities, including wheat, coarse grains, rice, and oilseeds.
The report sees global wheat supplies increasing due to higher production in Russia, the EU, and India. Russia's 2017-2018 wheat production rose to a new record of 82 million tons, well above the 2016-2017 record of 72.5 million tons. EU wheat production also rose to 151 million tons. Australia, on the other hand, faces reduced production prospects due to ongoing dry weather. While this will reduce exports from Australia, exports from Canada are expected to be higher, slightly increasing total global wheat trade. Total global wheat consumption is also expected to increase due to higher usage in India, the EU, and Russia. Despite this increased use, overall production is high enough to bring global ending stocks to a record level of 268.1 million tons.
Global maize production is also forecast higher this month. Reduced production in Russia, Ukraine, Tanzania, and Ethiopia has been off-set by increases in a number of countries, including Nigeria, Turkey, and Mozambique. Russia and Ukraine are also expected to reduce their maize exports, but increased exports from Mexico and Argentina will off-set that decrease as well. China has increased its use of maize for food, seed, and industrial use. Global maize ending stocks are estimated down 1.5 million tons from last month.
Global rice supplies rose by 18.3 million tons this month, due largely to revisions in China's historical rice ending stocks starting in 2010-2011. These revisions reflect changes in the Chinese government's procurement of rice since 2013, as well as reductions in estimated per capita consumption. Global rice production rose to 483.8 million tons this month based on increased production in Niger and Egypt. Rice production in these countries more than off-set reduced production in Bangladesh. Global rice ending stocks reached 141.5 million tons, the highest level seen since 2000-2001; China is estimated to hold 65 percent of those stocks.
Global oilseed production fell by 1.6 million tons this month. Global soybean production specifically fell by 0.6 million tons due to reduced production in Russia and Ukraine; increased production in China and Mexico only partially off-set this decrease. Soybean exports also fell, with reductions in exports from Ukraine. Overall global oilseed ending stocks are estimated to be 107.9 million tons, down from last month; this reduction reflects a revision in estimates for 2016-2017 in Brazil and the US.