December WASDE Report Sees Increased Global Supplies

The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA reports increased supplies for major global commodities.

Projected global wheat supplies for 2017-2018 rose in December, driven mostly by increased production in Canada and the European Union. This offset decreases in Brazil, South Africa and Yemen. Global wheat trade forecasts also increased in December. Higher exports are expected from Canada, Russia, and Ukraine, offsetting decreased exports from the US. Indonesia, China, and Brazil are expected to increase their wheat imports; this increase is driven partly by rising use of wheat for feed in Indonesia. Overall global wheat consumption is expected to rise by 2.1 million tons in 2017-2018, and global ending stocks are anticipated to hit a record high of 268.4 million.

Global coarse grain production are also forecast to rise by 1.4 million tons for 2017-2018. Corn production increased in China, Laos, Guatemala, and the EU, offsetting falling production in Russia. The EU is also anticipated to see rising corn exports, and China, the EU, and Brazil are forecast to have higher corn stocks. Total global corn ending stocks rose slightly in December to 204.1 million tons.

Global rice production for 2017-2018 rose in December by 2.3 million tons, driven by a 2-million-ton increase in China. Global rice exports and total global rice use forecasts also rose in December by 0.4 million tons each. Total global rice ending stocks are expected to reach 140.7 million, with Chinese ending stocks expected to reach the highest levels seen since 1999-2000.

Global oilseed production forecasts rose by 0.7 million tons in December, reflecting increased production in rapeseed, peanut, and palm kernel oil. Global oilseed exports rose by 0.5 million tons, with soybean exports increasing from Argentina and Brazil. The US and Canada are expected to see lower soybean exports for 2017-2018. While South American soybean ending stocks are forecast lower, increased stocks in the US, Canada, and the EU mean that total global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 0.4 million tons.