Food Security

Fertilizer prices experienced a significant surge in 2021, driven by the post-COVID 19 global economic recovery. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine propelled prices even higher. Broad economic sanctions on key fertilizer exporters Russia and Belarus exempted agricultural products but triggered further economic disruptions. Overall, the conflict heightened market uncertainties regarding the availability of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based fertilizers in international trade.

The problem of food loss and waste (FLW) undermines global food and nutrition security and makes a significant contribution to climate change, primarily through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing or minimizing FLW requires coordinated action to align stakeholders, promote responsible investments, and incentivize sustainable agricultural practices.

Food, land, and water systems face daunting challenges in the future, and the body of research exploring these challenges is growing rapidly. This note is part of a series developed by the CGIAR Foresight Initiative to summarize what we know today about the future of various aspects of food systems. The goal of these notes is to serve as a quick reference, point to further information, and help guide future research and decisions.

Key messages

Millions of people across 22 countries and territories may be pushed into acute food insecurity by May 2025, according to the latest FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots Report. Ongoing and increasing conflict in many areas of the world, along with economic hardships and extreme weather caused by climate change and the La Niña phenomenon, are behind this significant increase in both the magnitude and the severity of acute food insecurity.

Within a few weeks of marking the first anniversary of the Hamas-Israel war, the worst possible food security scenario is playing out in Gaza.