What's New

Poor diets are now the No. 1 risk factor in the global burden of disease (GBD), accounting for one in five deaths globally. Too much sugar, fat, and red meat increase the risks of heart disease, diabetes, and cancer—all killers in later life (mostly in higher income countries). Too little nutrient-dense fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, meat, and fish are associated with wasting, stunting, and micronutrient deficiencies in early childhood—all killers in early life (mostly in lower income countries).

The latest edition of the AMIS market monitor, released on September 8, shows that the international price of wheat, maize, rice, and soybean has decreased since July. This decline has been driven by improved global crop prospects and plentiful export availabilities.

India’s monsoon season is off to its weakest start in five years, sparking fears over the potential for drought and increased food prices throughout the country. During the first half of June, cumulative rainfall for India as a whole was 45 percent below average, according to the Ministry of Agriculture’s Department of Agriculture and Cooperation ; India’s Meteorological Department is predicting that total monsoons this season will reach only 93 percent of the long period average.

Food price volatility can present problems for an array of stakeholders, including countries managing their export portfolios, commodity traders, and especially farmers, as unpredictable prices may result in variable income and food insecurity.

Since the poor spend a greater share of their household incomes on purchasing food, higher food prices must exacerbate poverty, right? Wrong . . . at least over the medium term. In my most recent paper, I find that the opposite is true: higher domestic food prices predict reductions in poverty. The methods in this paper are fairly simple. I take World Bank national poverty estimates for a broad swathe of countries and regress changes in poverty against changes in domestic food prices (the ratio of the food CPI to the non-food CPI).