Food Prices

Cocoa bean prices have climbed to record nominal levels over the past six months, more than doubling since August 2023 (Figure 1). This price spike has largely been driven by weather-related diseases that have reduced cocoa production in key West African countries accounting for almost three quarters of world supplies.

During 2021 and 2022, global food and fertilizer prices spiked due to several overlapping factors. Demand rose as the world economy emerged from the COVID-19 recession; global supply chains suffered major disruptions associated with the uneven recovery; and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine—both key food and fertilizer producers—generated yet another shock.

The FAO Food Price Index continued its decline in February, falling marginally due to declines in cereal and vegetable oil prices. The February Index was down 10.5 percent from its 2023 level.

The real price of food has risen dramatically in 21st century, with the FAO food price index peaking at an all-time high in March 2022 at 116% above its 2000 value (Figure 1). While food inflation has long been a cause of concern for nutrition agencies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), new evidence is shedding light on the potential impacts of rising food prices on child malnutrition in LMICs.

Figure 1

Two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the war continues to disrupt agricultural production and trade in Ukraine—one of the world's largest agricultural exporters—and poses an ongoing threat to global food security. Yet global commodity markets have adjusted to these disruptions, in part to due to increased exports by other suppliers, including Russia, easing the initial shock.