What's New

The newest edition of the FEWS Net Monthly Price Watch was released last week, citing continuing high international maize and wheat prices. While maize prices saw drastic spikes in June and July 2012 due to drought conditions in the US, they leveled off, although at high levels, later in the year as more information regarding US crop conditions and global supplies became available. Wheat prices, on the other hand, rose steadily between May and November before leveling out in December.

US wheat supplies are expected to increase by the end of 2013, in part because of weakened export demand, according to the latest Wheat Outlook from the USDA Economic Research Service. Global wheat production is also forecast to increase by 3.7 tons due to increases in China, Australia, and Canada. World ending stocks are predicted to be 2.8 million tons higher than previously estimated.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) has released the latest edition of its monthly Market Monitor. This month's report sees stabilized world markets as forecasts for 2012-2013 crop outlooks become more finalized. Despite this stabilization, however, attention should be paid to ongoing weather concerns, particularly drought affecting US winter wheat.

Wheat production in 2012 fell below the record seen in 2011, and ending stocks are expected to decline significantly. Wheat use, on the other hand, is expected to drop based on lower feed use in China and the EU.

In its latest Monthly Food Price Watch, FEWS NET reports that global rice production for 2012/2013 is expected to be the highest on record. Global soybean production prospects also improved with a 10 percent increase for 2012/2013; however, strong global demand is expected to keep soybean and soybean oil prices high. While global wheat prices remain high, production is only expected to decline by six percent. However, trade policies in key wheat exporting countries could exert further pressure on prices.

The latest FEWS NET Monthly Price Watch was released on Friday. The report states that international grain prices stabilized at higher levels in August and began to decline in September as more information about the extent of U.S. crop damage due the drought became available.