What's New

International grain prices spiked sharply in July and have since stabilized at higher levels, according to the latest FEWS Food Price Watch. The August report reflects deteriorating weather conditions in several key exporting countries. The US drought has had a severe impact on both maize and soybean prices, while earlier South American crop losses have put further upward pressure on soybean prices.

As poor weather continues to hammer crops in the US, all eyes are on the impact the drought will have on global food prices. It is important for policymakers to look at all the information surrounding food prices, including price volatility. IFPRI's Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System provides reliable daily monitoring of food prices and price volatility, based on sophisticated statistical modeling (NEXQ: Nonparametric Extreme Quantile Model).

According to a new update released by GIEWS, the export prices of some major grains have jumped in the past month. Compared to June levels, the export price of maize increased by 20 percent in the first three weeks of July; the benchmark US yellow maize reached a record high of USD 322 per tonne.

The international price of wheat has also risen sharply in July, increasing by 21 percent in the first three weeks. Despite this drastic increase, wheat prices still remain far below the record high seen in March 2008.

The FAO Global Food Price Index averaged 214 points in April, down 3 points from the previous month. Cereals prices aided this decline with a drop of nearly 2 percent from March and 16 percent from April 2011. Maize prices declined on solid production prospects, while wheat and rice prices also fell marginally. Soybean prices, on the other hand, surged on fears of tightening global supplies.

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The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) has released its monthly crops outlook. The reports track US and international production, stocks, and trade data for major commodities and agricultural goods. The April reports cite an anticipated reduction in US soybean acreage due to a surge in corn planting; Brazil and Argentina also saw reductions in their estimated soybean production due to drought. These reductions could bring global soybean export levels down by 4 percent.