What's New

FEWS Net has issued an alert for East Africa, stating that a delayed start to the annual June-September rains is threatening harvests throughout the region. While rainfall has improved in recent weeks, FEWS estimates that normal rainfall would need to not only continue for the remainder of the season but extend past the normal rainy season in order for crops to fully recover. In large areas of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, total rainfall has been 20-50 percent lower than average.

High food prices affect poor populations in a variety of ways. While households that only consume food suffer as a result of rising food prices, households that also produce food can actually benefit from price increases. But there is another, less recognized avenue through which high food prices can impact the poor: rural wages. The lion's share of the world's poor relies on agricultural jobs to make a living; whether or not agricultural wages increase as a result of rising food prices therefore has significant implications for how those price increases will help or hurt.

The USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today. The WASDE report provides monthly comprehensive forecasts of supply and demand for major U.S. and global crops, supplied by the USDA. Crops covered include wheat, coarse grains, rice, and oilseeds. This report can explain past and current global commodities trends, as well as predict trends for the coming year. This month's report estimates 2013/2014 global wheat production at a record 705.4 million tons. Global wheat supply estimated were also raised by 7.5 million tons this month.

The latest FAO Food Price Index was released yesterday, and is down four points from June and seven points from a year ago. This is the third consecutive monthly drop and is due in large part to lower grain, soy, and oil prices.

The Cereal Price Index dropped in July by 8.8 points, down nearly 33 points from July 2012. This sharp drop was driven mainly by maize prices, which fell on favorable weather and production prospects in several major producers. Wheat prices also declined in July, but that decline was limited by increased export demand.

The latest FEWS Net Monthly Price Watch was released last week, citing generally stable international staple grain prices.

Large carry-over stocks of Thai rice have balanced out against record low rice production in the US; global rice production estimates remain on track to surpass record 2011-2012 harvests. Global maize prices also remained stable in June after sharp declines in April, while wheat export prices held steady due to favorable production prospects. Global soybean output is estimated to increase on strong production expected in both North and South America.