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Wheat Price Volatility: Drivers and Impacts
Ten years after the launch of AMIS and the Food Security Portal’s Excessive Price Variability Early Warning System, managing and reducing food price volatility remains a clear priority for global food security.
As reported earlier this month, global wheat prices declined slightly in June after 12 straight months of increases. The recent decline was based on favorable production prospects in several major producing regions, including Europe, India, and the Black Sea region. Wheat futures prices followed suit, dropping by 6 percent in June.
FAO Food Price Index Continues to Surge
The FAO Food Price Index continued to surge in May, rising 4.8 percent from the previous month. Prices are now 38.9 percent higher than May 2020 and the highest seen since September 2011. This twelfth consecutive month of increases also brings the Index just 7.6 percent below the record highs of February 2011.
FAO, AMIS Report Ongoing Price Increases, Warn of Potential Price Volatility
The FAO Food Price Index continued its 11-month climb in April, rising by 1.7 percent from March 2021. The Index also surged 30.8 percent above its April 2020 levels to reach its highest level seen since May 2014.
Commodity prices continue to rise but could be tempered by good production forecasts: FAO and AMIS
The FAO Food Price Index continued to rise in March for the tenth consecutive month. The Index increased 2.1 percent from February, bringing it to its highest value seen since June 2014. The rise was led by increased prices for vegetable oils, meat, and dairy. Cereal prices declined in March.
Decreased Grain Exports from Ukraine Unlikely to Impact Long-Term Global Prices
Concerns have been growing over how the ongoing political turmoil in the Ukraine, the world's third largest maize exporter, could impact global grain prices and reserves in the coming year. While Ukraine has delivered the majority of its current export obligations, continuing conflict could pose problems for next season's planting and harvest, and thus future export shipments. According to an article published by IRIN News, however, experts do not foresee a long-term impact on global grain prices.