The economies of the Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), major agricultural exporters still recovering from the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, have benefited from the rise in international prices accompanying the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With the war disrupting global supplies, the net exporting countries of the region have the opportunity to increase their exports.

The sanctions imposed by the European Union, United States, Canada, and other countries on Russia and Belarus following Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine included restrictions on banking, trade, technology transfers, and specific individuals. These came on top of earlier sanctions on both countries – on Russia, in response to its 2014 annexation of Crimea, and on Belarus, in response to human rights violations in 2020 and its forced grounding of Ryanair flight 4798 to seize a dissident journalist in 2021.

The October FAO Food Price Index remained largely unchanged from September, with rising cereal prices balanced by declines in the other commodity groups. The overall Food Price Index has fallen by almost 15 percent from March 2022 but remains 2 percent above its October 2021 levels.

Russia’s October 29 announcement that it was suspending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative—which allows shipments out of Ukrainian ports—was not a surprise; Russia had been skeptical of the deal since the start. But now the supply disruptions will begin again: the move will have a negative impact on Ukraine, its customers, on world market prices—and global food security, particularly for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

The latest FAO Food Price Index reports that global food prices fell by 1.5 percent in September. However, the Index remains 5.5 higher than its September 2021 level. The decline from August was driven by significant drops in vegetable oil prices and more moderate drops in sugar, meat, and dairy products; cereal prices rose in September.

After the sharp rise in international prices of wheat and other staple foods in the wake of Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, since May prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Has the global food price crisis now come to an end? Unfortunately, such a conclusion is premature. Domestic food prices for consumers continue to rise in most countries. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainties—not the least of which is the continuing war—augur for continued turmoil in global food markets.

For the fourth consecutive year, global acute food insecurity rose in 2022. As many as 205.1 million people across 45 countries and territories are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or higher food insecurity as of September 2022, according to the Global Report on Food Crisis Mid-Year Update. That represents an increase of 29.5 million people from 2021.

On July 22, Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to allow exports of grain and other agricultural products to resume from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports after months of Russian blockade. The agreement comes at a time when storage capacity is reaching its limits, with the much of the 2022 wheat harvest and the approximately 20 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds harvested in 2021 remaining in storage—unable to ship because of the blockade.