Iran Crisis

Now in its ninth week, the Iran war has sparked rising energy prices, heightened shipping and insurance risks, and disruptions along key trade corridors, increasing pressure on global supply chains. As these economic consequences continue to reverberate, the plight of Afghanistan illustrates the serious risks the conflict poses to regional economies and food security.

Afghanistan may be unique in its multiple vulnerabilities to these forces. Along with other regional landlocked economies, it relies on Persian Gulf countries not only for imports, but to serve as essential transit corridors linking domestic markets to maritime trade routes and global suppliers. Disruptions affecting these nodes are unlikely to generate an immediate threat to global food availability, yet still extend well beyond their immediate geography, shaping the availability, cost, and reliability of food supplies in downstream economies that lack alternative trade routes or domestic buffers.

Meanwhile, the country’s internal challenges, including climate-driven impacts on agriculture and, over the past two years, the return of approximately 5.2 million people—equivalent to about 10% of the country’s total population—are putting still more pressure on food supplies and prices. This post analyzes Afghanistan’s current economic predicament and its potential implications for food security.