Outils

Vulnerability to Global Market Shocks V.1: Wheat and Fertilizer Price Shocks Caused by Ukraine Crisis

This tool is designed to identify the exposure (vulnerability) of countries to shocks in global markets that may cause supply shortages or price surges in staple foods and key agricultural inputs (like fertilizers) which could erode food security in countries if they are highly dependent on imports of such commodities and/or lack the economic capacity to cushion their vulnerable population against the impacts of those shocks.

The tool effectively served, for instance, to identify early on exposure to the shocks to global food and fertilizer markets caused by the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022. Version 1 of this tool was created in March 2022 and labelled “Vulnerability Analysis of Wheat and Fertilizer Trade Dependence” given the supply bottlenecks the war and certain policy responses (especially trade bans and restrictions) created in global markets for wheat and fertilizers. Based on the tool country “hot spots” were identified based on degree of vulnerability to the external shock and risk to food security. The framework for this analysis can be explored in this Methodological Note.  For a presentation of the initial findings, see the video below

The framework was further used for country-specific and region-specific vulnerability assessments, including Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and West Africa and South America.

 

Vulnerability to Global Market Shocks V.1: Wheat and Fertilizer Price Shocks Caused by Ukraine Crisis

V.1: Vulnerability to Ukraine-war Shock to Wheat and Fertilizer Markets – Egypt, Lebanon, and Yemen

The Vulnerability to Global Market Shocks V.1: Wheat and Fertilizer Price Shocks Caused by Ukraine Crisis dashboard identifies countries most vulnerable along a 10-category typology. It shows a significant number of countries directly and very strongly exposed to the conflict and/or subsequent export restrictions, especially countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, as well as a few countries in Africa and Asia. It also shows that the vast majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are more indirectly affected, as they face significant increases in the cost of food, their populations spend high shares of income on food and initial food insecurity levels are already high.

Click here for the full screen

V.1: Vulnerability to Ukraine-war Shock to Wheat and Fertilizer Markets – Country Hot Spot Map

To understand this better, we need to closely examine the information on the dashboard and connect it with more data and insights about each country's unique situation. From the dashboard information, we can create a detailed profile for a specific country. For example, the map below displays important vulnerability indicators for three countries in the MENA region: Lebanon and Yemen (both in category 1) and Egypt (category 3).

Click here for the full screen

Domestic Food Price Inflation and Food Security Risks posed by the Invasion of Ukraine

Source: IFPRI policy seminar | Click here to see the presentation

Further reading on global analyses

 

Addressing the food crisis in Yemen: The private sector’s key role amid local conflict and global market disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war

Nov 23rd, 2022 • by SIKANDRA KURDI, OLIVIER ECKER, JOSEPH GLAUBER AND DAVID LABORDE

The Yemen conflict, underway since early 2015, has led to an ongoing, unprecedented humanitarian emergency. Food needs far exceed current consumption levels, with 3.5 million pregnant or breastfeeding women and children under 5 suffering from acute malnutrition and up to 19 million people affected by food insecurity in 2022.

How sanctions on Russia and Belarus are impacting exports of agricultural products and fertilizer

Nov 10th, 2022 • by JOSEPH GLAUBER AND DAVID LABORDE

The sanctions imposed by the European Union, United States, Canada, and other countries on Russia and Belarus following Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine included restrictions on banking, trade, technology transfers, and specific individuals. These came on top of earlier sanctions on both countries – on Russia, in response to its 2014 annexation of Crimea, and on Belarus, in response to human rights violations in 2020 and its forced grounding of Ryanair flight 4798 to seize a dissident journalist in 2021.

Further reading on country/regional analyses

 

[Risks to Kenya’s food security and fertilizer markets] Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty

Jun 13th, 2022 • by CLEMENS BREISINGER , XINSHEN DIAO, PAUL DOROSH, JUNEWEENEX MBUTHIA, LENSA OMUNE, EDWIN OMBUI OSEKO, ANGGA PRADESHA AND JAMES THURLOW

Much of the early attention on the Russian-Ukraine conflict’s food security impacts has been concentrated on countries highly dependent on wheat imports from the Black Sea region. Given the important role that wheat products play in the diets of people in Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon, and other countries, the interruption in Black Sea wheat trade and high prices have raised serious concerns about rising levels of food insecurity, poverty, and instability around the world.

[What’s next for Lebanon?] One of the world’s worst economic collapses, now compounded by the Ukraine crisis: What’s next for Lebanon?

May 16th, 2022 • by CLEMENS BREISINGER, NADIM KHOURI, JOSEPH GLAUBER AND DAVID LABORDE

High food prices and supply disruptions triggered by the Ukraine war are hitting Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries like Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen hard, partly due their heavy dependence on wheat imports. But in the region, Lebanon—already in the midst of one of the world’s worst economic collapses since the 1850s—is uniquely vulnerable to food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A recent World Bank report calls Lebanon’s current crisis “The Great Denial”—referring to an ongoing breakdown of government services, civil society, and the economy.

[Risks to food security in West Africa] West Africa faces mixed food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Apr 2nd, 2022 • by ANTOINE BOUËT, DAVID LABORDE AND FOUSSEINI TRAORÉ

Food security in West Africa has been deteriorating since 2015: The proportion of the population affected by undernutrition rose from 11.5% in 2015 to 18.7% in 2020, a total of 75.2 million people. Now, like the rest of the world, the region faces rapidly growing impacts from Russia’s war in Ukraine, including spiking food prices and disruptions in markets for cereals and other commodities, including fertilizers and fuels. What are some of the war’s likely effects on West Africa?

[Risks to food security in Egypt] The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious food security threat for Egypt

Mar 15th, 2022 • by KIBROM ABAY, LINA ABDELFATTAH, CLEMENS BREISINGER, JOSEPH GLAUBER AND DAVID LABORDE

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has imperiled global food security—creating suffering within Ukraine and displacing millions, while disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world's major exporting regions. The latter threatens to drive rising food prices still higher and create scarcity, especially for regions most dependent on exports from Russia and Ukraine—particularly the Middle East and North Africa.

The subsequent version

The new Vulnerability to Global Market Shocks V.2: Price Shocks to Major Staple Foods facilitates a rapid assessment of the risk to national food security of international food price shocks for 182 countries.