Structure
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.
The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides you several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.
Fertilizer Dashboard
Fertilizer Market Developments
Monthly assessments of fertilizer market developments were prepared for the AMIS Market Monitor. You can find a summary of all months on the "Market Overview" tab of the Fertilizer Market Dashboard above.
Overview of market developments in April 2024
Fertilizer markets were mostly stable in April. The trend appears subdued for the upcoming months as demand seasonally winds down in the Northern Hemisphere, unless tensions intensify in the Middle East with economic repercussions beyond the region or export patterns from China deviate significantly from expectations.
Fertilizer input prices
Natural gas prices were volatile in Europe in April amid tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions in Norway. However, storage levels remain comfortable, and demand usually softens into the summer. Similarly, U.S. natural gas prices futures show a downward trend. Ammonia prices rose in April on tight spot availability, particularly East of Suez, and some tighter sentiment could be felt in Europe with two plants in Spain and Germany in turnaround.
Nitrogen fertilizer prices
Global urea prices decreased in April, driven by lower-than-anticipated purchases in the latest Indian tender. Production and stocks are up in India, which should keep import demand in check until the third quarter. Global supply is ample, with North Africa, Nigeria and Arab Gulf reporting availability for May. The return of exports from China could add up to four million tonnes to global supply. Against this backdrop, nitrogen markets may remain soft into the summer. However, concerns persist around the situation in the Middle East, given the region’s significant share in global nitrogen exports.
Phosphorus fertilizer prices
Phosphate prices are increasingly fragmented. The return of Chinese exports triggered a decline in India CFR pricing while Western markets were less impacted given the relatively small share of Chinese phosphates in their import mix. World prices are expected to converge lower as seasonal demand softens, with only Brazil showing some upward price evolution on MAP.
Potash prices
Potash prices saw a slight uptick in Brazil this month, supported by increased demand due to favorable affordability levels. Elsewhere, slow demand has persisted longer than expected in many regions. Prices are under downward pressure in Northwest Europe, where the application season has largely concluded. Ample supply availability and high producer stocks are likely to hinder upside potential in the coming months.
Fertilizer market analysis by IFPRI & FSP
Here you can find a selection of IFPRI and FSP analysis on fertilizer markets.
