Resources

The prices of staple grains on international markets began to rise in mid-2020 in response to higher fertilizer prices and supply constraints associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. They further spiked in early 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This brief examines the impact of these events on poverty in Nigeria. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c).
The methodological approach is similar in all six country studies. First, we examine the effect of the increases in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below.

Because of low incomes and associated large shares of expenditure on food, Mali is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key grain staples such as maize and wheat. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine develop ments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of relatively stable prices on world mar kets, the prices of key food staples began to rise during 2020. This period of price increases, span ning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Mali.

After a long period of relatively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the Covid-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Ethiopia.

The report presents price trends and movements for key food commodities, including dry beans, dry maize, rice, wheat, and Irish potatoes, for July 2023, in selected major regions and markets in Kenya.

The report analyzes the evolution of weekly maize and rice prices in four East African countries - Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda - in July 2023.

The report analyzes the evolution of weekly maize and rice prices in four East African countries - Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda - in June 2023.

The report presents price trends and movements for key food commodities, including dry beans, dry maize, rice, wheat, and Irish potatoes, for June 2023, in selected major regions and markets in Kenya.