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As the year draws to a close, commodity markets have quieted down from the more volatile price movements that have characterized the past two years. With the exception of rice, prices for most grains and oilseeds are 15 to 20 percent below January 2022 levels. Yet, even rice prices have fallen back from recent highs as global production prospects look more favorable than they did in late summer. Despite a slowing global economy, demand for agricultural
products remains strong and is expected to hit record levels in the 2023/24 marketing season. Lower prices mean reduced profitability for grain and oilseed farmers though lower costs for fuel and fertilizer will help mitigate that impact.

After nearing record levels following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, implied volatility of maize and soybean is now below the historical average. This reflects large global harvests and large estimated closing stocks. By contrast, wheat prices have remained highly volatile, largely linked to uncertainty caused by the conflict. Ukraine's wheat production this year was 35 percent lower than pre-war levels and prospects for a rebound in 2024 are unlikely. While shipping has resumed out of the Black Sea ports through the so-called humanitarian corridor, persistent attacks on export infrastructure continue to roil markets. Meanwhile, rice prices have declined in the past few weeks, reflecting a smaller-than-anticipated impact of El Niño on production, and prompting some countries to reverse market-distorting policies.

Rice continues to be in the news. Since India banned non-Basmati rice exports in July, rice prices have risen markedly, raising concerns that other countries might follow suit and also restrict trade. As a case in point, Myanmar, the world's sixth largest rice exporter, announced new export licensing requirements while the Philippines has put in place price ceilings to cap retail rice prices. All of these actions have occurred as a strengthening El Niño threatens to cut rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices higher. ASEAN leaders have recognized the threat to food security and recently confirmed their commitment to keep the flow of agricultural products unimpeded and refrain from using 'unjustified' trade barriers. AMIS will continue working with its participating countries to promote the open flow of food commodities.