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Kenya is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key staple grains such as maize and wheat, both because these are important in diets and because Kenya depends on im ports of these products. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine developments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of rela tively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Kenya. Figure 1 shows the movements in the prices of four key grain staples—maize, rice, sorghum and wheat—from the beginning of 2020.

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.

Data from May indicates a persistent trend of modest price increases in Nepal. Year-on-year inflation for food and beverage prices was recorded at 5.5 percent, which, though lower compared to 6.9 percent in the previous month and significantly less than in April and May 2022, still denotes an escalation in food prices from an already elevated base. While the high inflation rate impacts all consumers, it is likely to disproportionately strain the finances of the poor, potentially jeopardizing food security. Moreover, the inflation rates for non-food items and services surged to 8.9 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a somewhat milder increase compared to the Wage Rate Index, registering a 7.4 percent growth as opposed to 7.6 percent.