The tools presented in this section provide a visual representation of historical periods of excessive global price volatility from 2000-present, as well as a daily volatility status. This status can alert policymakers when world markets are experiencing a period of excessive food price volatility; this information can then be used to determine appropriate country-level food security responses, such as the release of physical food stocks.
A time period of excessive price volatility: A period of time characterized by extreme price variation (volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain preestablished threshold. This threshold is normally taken to be a high order (95 or 99%) conditional quantile, (i.e. a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 or 1%). In this model we are using the 95% quantile.
Days in volatility reflects the number of continuous days in the current level of volatility. For example, 20 days of low volatility means that since the last instance of moderate or high volatility, there have been 20 days of low volatility.
Please note: For best results, please view these tools using Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome.
Hard Wheat Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
Maize Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
Soft Wheat Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
Soybean Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
Rice Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
Days of Excessive Volatility per Year, 2002-2013
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) 2013. Available at: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/