Excessive Food Price Variability Tool Outputs

Click on the commodities below for more information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • RED or Excessive Volatility = excessive price volatility. A period characterized by an excessive number of days of extreme price returns relative to that expected by the model.
  • ORANGE or Moderate volatility = Moderate Volatility. A period characterized by a moderate number of days of extreme price returns relative to that expected by the model.
  • GREEN or Low volatility = Low Volatility. excessive price volatility. A period characterized by an excessive number of days of extreme price returns relative to that expected by the model.

  • Historical data of Excessive Food Price Variability
    Click here for full screen


    How the tool works

    The Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is a tool of the Food Security Portal that identifies periods of excessive price variability (i.e. price variability that exceeds a pre-established threshold), and it is updated on a daily basis to identify days that are within periods of high, moderate, and low price variability. The tool is based on a statistical model that formally models the behavior (fluctuations) of commodity price returns (i.e. day-to-day percentage changes of commodity prices) using futures market prices closest to maturity. The instrument can serve as an early warning system for unusual periods of excessive price variability that could help for timely responses.



    Background of the tool and food price volatility:

    Excessive food price volatility (variability) affects farmers, traders, processors and consumers – and it threatens food security. In the aftermath of the 2007-2008 food price crisis and post-crisis commodity price volatility, the Food Security Portal developed the tool presented here.

    The Excessive Food Price Volatility tool provides you with a visual representation of historical periods of excessive global price volatility from 2000-present, as well as a daily volatility status. It serves as an early warning system for timely responses. Alerts produced by this tool can be used to determine appropriate and timely country-level food security responses.

    Hard Wheat Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
    Maize Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
    Soft Wheat Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
    Soybean Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System
    Rice Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System

    Share