The population of Gaza is on the brink of famine

The food insecurity situation in the Gaza Strip is becoming increasingly dire. A recent blog of just 10 days ago and based on an assessment by the World Food Programme pointed out that during October and November, 80 percent of the population in Gaza was displaced and more than 80 percent suffered food deficiencies. A new assessment by the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for Acute Food Insecurity conducted in early December sketches an even gloomier picture with an estimated 85% of the population  displaced and  93% of Gaza’s 2.2 million population facing crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) (Figure 1). This is the highest share of a population facing severe and acute food insecurity in any given context since IPC started making these assessments twenty years ago. According to the IPC assessment, over 15% of the population (378,000 people) were in IPC Phase 5, defined as “Catastrophe,” that is, a condition where “even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in an area have an extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evident.”

Figure 1

Source: IPC. 2023. Gaza Strip: IPC Acute Food Insecurity. November 2023–February 2024. Rome: Integrated Phase Classification.

This already very dire situation is worsening. Due to the expansion of the high-intensity conflict and the extremely high and growing level of displacement in the southern governorates, IPC and its Famine Review Committee project that over 30% of the population in the northern governorates in Gaza and over 25% of the population in southern governorates of Rafah, Khan Younis, and the middle area of Deir al Balah is likely to experience famine over the coming weeks. At the same time, IPC projects that the entire population of Gaza will be experiencing crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Source:  IPC. 2023. Gaza Strip: IPC Acute Food Insecurity. November 2023–February 2024. Rome: Integrated Phase Classification.

The situation is expected to worsen even further with the continued intense hostilities, further reduction in access to food, and restrictions on humanitarian assistance in the region. The destruction of basic services, including water supply and health services, is increasing the risk of spreading communicable diseases. If there is no ceasefire soon, it should be expected that nearly the entire population of Gaza will be displaced, with a high concentration in the Al Mawasi area and throughout Rafah governorate, while populations remaining in the northern governorates, including Gaza and North Gaza, are expected to remain highly isolated and inaccessible to humanitarian organizations.

The IPC emphasizes that avoiding a major human disaster will be impossible without immediate cessation of hostilities. An end to the fighting and destruction of homes and livelihoods is needed to:

• Restore safe and sustained access to life-saving humanitarian assistance throughout the Gaza Strip. This should also include reopening of border crossings, including for commercial traffic, such that essential commodities, including fuel, food, water, medical supplies, and shelter materials, should be allowed to move into and throughout Gaza without limitation.
• Along with the previous, step up immediate multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance to the entire population in the Gaza Strip, including isolated populations, especially adequate food provisioning, restoration of health services, accommodations for shelter, drinking water supplies, and other basic needs.
• A beginning should also be made with restoring the functionality of basic services infrastructure and conditions for people to reactivate their livelihoods. This should include the immediate restoration of cross-border water pipelines, water infrastructure including desalination and water treatment plants, wells, resumption of electricity distribution and facilities for waste management, and restoring trade and distribution networks, food processing facilities, including mills and bakeries, and other basic infrastructure.

Rob Vos is Director of the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI and member of the IPC Steering Committee. 

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is an innovative multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. By using the IPC classification and analytical approach, Governments, UN Agencies, NGOs, civil society and other relevant actors, work together to determine the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity, and acute malnutrition situations in a country, according to internationally-recognized scientific standards.