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The FAO Food Price Index remained generally stable in June, with rising vegetable oil prices balanced out in large part by declines in cereal prices. The Index was 1.7 percent higher than in June 2025 but still nearly 20 percent below its March 2022 record. The Cereal Price Index fell by 3.5 percent in June but remained nearly 3 percent above its June 2026 level.

Key takeaways Developing countries are highly exposed to impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, IFPRI economic modeling shows.Poverty and food insecurity rise modestly in percentage terms, but absolute numbers show a significant impact, with about 20 million more people in poverty and 2.5 million more facing undernourishment.Broader economic impacts are limited but uneven. GDP declines are generally small, but agriculture and supply chains face stronger pressures. The economic impacts flowing from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to reverberate, ra

The critical supply chain for fertilizer in combination with rising energy and transport costs will be felt most by poorer countries and households. Whether this develops into a veritable food crisis will depend on how the war procedes.The Iran war has disrupted critical supply chains and driven up the cost of energy and fertilizer, both essential agricultural inputs, sparking fears of another global food crisis.

Key takeaways Policy decisions by fertilizer exporters outside the Persian Gulf region could have significant impacts on global fertilizer markets already reeling from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a modeling analysis shows.Export restrictions insulate domestic users from high global prices, but amplify global supply shocks by removing physical volume from the marketplace.Subsidies shield domestic farmers from high global prices, sustaining consumption but contributing to price increases.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, 2026,

Key takeawaysRising global fertilizer and energy prices are straining farmers in Argentina and Brazil even as global food supplies remain relatively ample.Heavy dependence on imported fertilizers makes both countries especially vulnerable to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.Lower margins and uncertain weather could push producers toward reduced fertilizer use or less input‑intensive crops, with risks for future supply.Fertilizer and energy prices have spiked due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on agricultural producers and sparking fears of a potential ris