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Key takeawaysFertilizer and energy, not food, are the core shocks. The Hormuz closure is disrupting energy and fertilizer shipments and driving up prices, but grain markets remain stable. Classic food price‑spike conditions are absent. Strong demand, tight stocks, weak dollar, and weather shocks aren’t aligning as in past crises. Food prices likely won’t surge soon. Ample global stocks and favorable crop conditions limit the risk of broad commodity price spikes. Agricultural commodity prices have been under sustained downward pressure s

Key takeaways

•Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices.
•Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks.
•Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stands as a vital supplier to the global food system, yet its agricultural sector faces intensified disruptions from rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. In their book chapter on “Adapting to a Changing Climate: Strategies for Productive and Resilient Agrifood Systems” the authors looked at how factors like yield shocks, water constraints, and heat stress introduce new push-and-pull forces that alter crop viability and regional advantages.

If you’ve ever wondered why it is so difficult to change government programs that seem expensive or inefficient, you aren't alone. In agriculture, fertilizer subsidies are a classic example, often standing as a major hurdle to the global agenda of repurposing agricultural support toward more sustainable and nutritious outcomes. While economists frequently point out the fiscal and environmental flaws of these programs, they remain a mainstay of policy in many countries. A recent IFPRI Discussion Paper looks into the reasons behind this.

The FAO Food Price Index rose in February for the first time in five months, driven by increasing cereal, meat, and vegetable oil prices. Despite the increase, however, the Index remains nearly 35 percent below the record high reached in March 2022.The Cereal Price Index rose slightly more than 1 percent in February but remained 3.5 percent below its February 2025 level. Wheat prices increased due to concerns about cold weather in Europe and the United States, as well as transportation disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region.