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The critical supply chain for fertilizer in combination with rising energy and transport costs will be felt most by poorer countries and households. Whether this develops into a veritable food crisis will depend on how the war procedes.The Iran war has disrupted critical supply chains and driven up the cost of energy and fertilizer, both essential agricultural inputs, sparking fears of another global food crisis.

Key takeaways Policy decisions by fertilizer exporters outside the Persian Gulf region could have significant impacts on global fertilizer markets already reeling from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a modeling analysis shows.Export restrictions insulate domestic users from high global prices, but amplify global supply shocks by removing physical volume from the marketplace.Subsidies shield domestic farmers from high global prices, sustaining consumption but contributing to price increases.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, 2026,

Key takeawaysRising global fertilizer and energy prices are straining farmers in Argentina and Brazil even as global food supplies remain relatively ample.Heavy dependence on imported fertilizers makes both countries especially vulnerable to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.Lower margins and uncertain weather could push producers toward reduced fertilizer use or less input‑intensive crops, with risks for future supply.Fertilizer and energy prices have spiked due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on agricultural producers and sparking fears of a potential ris

Key takeaways The Iran conflict is disrupting Afghanistan’s supplies of food and other key items, sharply increasing import risks and price pressures.The country’s extreme import dependence magnifies shocks, leaving households highly vulnerable to trade and fuel disruptions.Climate stress and rising returnee demand compound risks, worsening an already severe food security crisis.Now in its ninth week, the Iran war has sparked rising energy prices, heightened shipping and insurance risks, and disruptions along key trade corridors, increasing pressure on global supply chains.

The number of people facing crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity has nearly doubled over the past 5 years, to encompass 300 million people. During the same period, however, funding for humanitarian assistance has almost halved. While these opposing trends have put humanitarian agencies in deficit and struggling to respond to urgent global needs, there is also the question of whether we know how much food assistance is actually needed to prevent starvation. Existing early warning systems for food crises merely identify the number of people in need of food assistance.