Photo Credit: Neil Palmer (CIAT)

According to the May WASDE report, total global wheat production is projected at 737.8 million tons, the second highest total on record. Projections for global wheat consumption declined slightly this month, with increased food use being offset by reduced feed use. Global ending stocks are up from 2016-2017, at a record 258.3 million tons. U.S. ending stocks, on the other hand, are projected to decline 245 million bushels to 914 million, the lowest in three years.

The global coarse grain outlook for 2017-2018 is for lower production, increased use, and sharply reduced ending stocks. The forecast for corn production is down since last year, with the largest declines coming from the US and China. These declines are being driven by high demand for corn used to produce ethanol; this demand rose by 50 million bushels in the latest report, reflecting expectations of gasoline consumption growth in the US. In China, total corn supply fell by 14 million tons for 2017-2018, based on projected declines in beginning stocks and production; however, like in the US, China’s food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is up based on expectations of growth in domestic use and in exports of corn-based industrial products. Offsetting the declines in the US and China are the larger corn crops expected in the EU and Canada. Global corn use is up by 1 percent, with notable increases in corn imports from Vietnam, Egypt, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Iran.

Total world rice consumption is on the rise. Global exports are projected at 42.2 million tons, up 0.8 million from 2016-2017. While China continues to hold the majority of global rice stocks (its growing production and large imports continue to outpace consumption), Thailand and India are expected to be the leading rice exporters for 2017-2018, both at 10.0 million tons. World 2017-2018 ending stocks are projected at 119.8 million tons, up slightly from the 2016-2017 numbers. The forecast for 2017-2018 US rice yields are based on long-term historical trends and are higher for long grain but slightly lower for combined medium- and short-grain. Projected US exports fell for all varieties this month due to reduced exportable supplies and increased export competition from Australia and Egypt.

Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts for 2017-2018 include higher production, crush, and exports compared to last year due to a higher demand for protein meals and oils worldwide. Global protein meal consumption is projected to expand 4 percent in 2017-2018; global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 189.0 million tons, up 5.4 million led by increases for India, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Global soybean exports are projected up 5.0 million from 2016-2017. With increased supplies and lower projected prices, due to expected gains in U.S. meat production, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2,150 million bushels, up 100 million from the revised 2016-2017.

Sugar production for 2017-2018 is projected at 8.700 million STRV, the sum of beet sugar production of 4.950 million and cane sugar production of 3.750 million. Exports for 2017-2018 are projected at 25,000 STRV. Total global red meat and poultry production for 2018 is projected higher than 2017 on increased livestock and poultry production. Exports of US beef, pork, broilers, and turkey are forecast higher due to expanding supplies and expected continued gains in foreign demand. Milk production for 2018 is forecast higher due to stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices.

The world 2017-2018 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 2.4 million bales, as consumption exceeds production for the third consecutive season. Production is forecast to rise in all major producing countries, led by the United States (2.0 million bales higher) and India (1.5 million bales higher). Global consumption is projected to rise 2.3 percent, as a growing world economy drives mill use higher around the world. Ending stocks are projected at 87.1 million bales, 75 percent of world consumption. For 2016-2017, world production is reduced marginally from last month, while consumption is raised slightly. Ending stocks lowered 1.4 million bales. Consumption and imports are slightly higher in China, and ending stocks are lower in India, the United States, and China.

By: Jenn Campus

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