As poor weather continues to hammer crops in the US, all eyes are on the impact the drought will have on global food prices. It is important for policymakers to look at all the information surrounding food prices, including price volatility. IFPRI's Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System provides reliable daily monitoring of food prices and price volatility, based on sophisticated statistical modeling (NEXQ: Nonparametric Extreme Quantile Model).
July and August have seen several instances of excessive volatility (for a full definition of excessive volatility, see the Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System landing page). Soybean prices have shown alarming levels of volatility for six weeks, beginning on July 5. Maize prices experienced excessive volatility for one week, from July 16-23, but have currently stabilized at low levels of volatility. Similarly, hard wheat prices saw excessive volatility for one week, from August 3-10, but have returned to low levels of volatility this week. Soft wheat prices and paddy rice prices have remained stable with low levels of volatility.
Check back every day to see the latest volatility levels for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans with the Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System.