The USDA’s monthly report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released on July 14.

The report raised its estimates for global 2016-2017 wheat supplies by 9.2 million tons to 983.0 million. World wheat production is estimated at a record 738.5 million tons in 2016-2017, led by 1.0 million ton increases in the estimates of production for both Russia and Ukraine and 0.5 million ton increases in Argentina, Australia, and Canada. These increases are partially offset by a 1.0 million ton decrease in the EU due to heavy rains in France and a 0.7 million ton decrease in Algeria due to a worse than expected drought. Global wheat use is also predicted to increase by 13.3 million tons to 729.3 million, primarily driven due to increased feed use in China and the EU. With total use rising faster than supplies, world stocks for the end of the year are lowered by 4.1 million tons to 253.7 million.

The report reduced its forecast for global coarse grain supplies for 2016-2017, mainly due to reductions in barley production in the EU and corn in Brazil. Global coarse grain production estimates remained largely unchanged in July at 1,303 million tons, with lower corn and barley production mostly offset by higher oat, sorghum, and rye production. Canada’s corn production for 2016-2017 is lowered by 1.3 million tons, mainly due to a dry June in Ontario. Similarly, estimates for global barley production were lowered due to reductions in production in Turkey, Canada, Algeria, and Morocco; Australia, Ukraine, and Uruguay experienced modest increases in corn production. The report also revised down its 2015-2016 estimates for Brazilian corn production by 7.5 million tons due to poor rains; by contrast, Argentinian corn production was revised up by 1 million tons. Global 2016-2017 coarse grain consumption was lowered by 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting reduced use of corn for feed in the United States, Brazil, China, EU, South Korea, and Indonesia.

Global rice supply estimates for 2016-2017 were raised by 0.6 million tons in July, Global rice production estimates for 2016-2017 increased from 480.7 to 481.2 million tons, mainly driven by an increase of 0.4 million tons in US production. Production estimates at the country level remained unchanged for most other countries; for instance, rice production estimates for India remained unchanged at 105 million. Global ending stocks for 2016-2017 were raised by 0.4 million tons to 107.3 million.

Global oilseed production for 2016-2017 is estimated at 536.4 million tons, up 2.6 million tons, with US soybean production accounting for most of the change. Rapeseed production is reduced for the EU on lower harvested area and yields. These lower rapeseed yields reflect excessive June rainfall, mainly in France. Other changes include increased soybean production for Canada and increased peanut production for the United States. Cottonseed production is reduced for India and Pakistan, with partially offsetting increases in the United States and Australia. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2016-2017 are projected at 76.1 million tons, up 1.0 million. Higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed stocks are partially offset by lower peanut stocks, however.

The WASDE reports include forecasts for U.S. and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), and cotton. The next report will be released on August 12.

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